By Shaheen Sehbai
NEW YORK: Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Hussain Haroon stayed away from President Asif Ali Zardari’s dinner for PPP leaders from across the US as the event ended on a note of utter confusion on Friday night in the heart of Manhattan when the president left suddenly without addressing the audience.
Hussain Haroon was not even invited to the dinner though top sources in the presidential camp said he had even asked for an invitation card but was denied one. So he stayed at his home entertaining some guests. When journalists asked him for comments on phone, he admitted that he had not been invited to the function.
The show was organised by Pakistan Ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani but President Zardari left abruptly within a few minutes after he arrived some 40 minutes after Iftar. Scores of PPP leaders, some with their families, were astonished as Mr Haqqani had arranged a podium and President Zardari was expected to make a speech.
But as soon as he arrived, he went around a few tables to shake hands with the guests and then left the hall, leaving the guests in utter confusion whether to wait for him or to have dinner without him or to leave.
Thousands of Pakistani tax payers’ dollars were wasted because the event not only ended on a note of confusion, PPP leaders and workers, some of whom had come from far off states, did not get a chance to hear the president.
A loud shouting match started before President Zardari’s arrival when some PPP supporters wanted to put up banners and PPP flags in the hall and Ambassador Husain Haqqani tried to stop them.
The PPP supporters insisted and hot words were exchanged, which alarmed the security personnel and the hotel management. Haqqani quickly allowed them to put up Benazir’s banners and PPP flags on the walls.
When asked to comment on what happened, Haqqani told the media representatives the hotel administration had specifically told the organisers that no banners or posters be pasted as that would damage the d©cor of the hall and heavy penalties might have to be paid if the walls were used for such banners.
He told journalists there was no untoward scene. “I told the security people not to worry as this was like an Irish wedding when people occasionally raised their voices but there was no trouble,” he said.
When specifically asked by The News why Mr Hussain Haroon was not present, he said the envoy to the UN might be busy with his UN General Assembly work.
When told that Mr Hussain Haroon is probably boycotting the event because it was his turn and right to invite the president and was denied that right, Mr Haqqani said this was not true as all community events anywhere in the US were to be organised by the US Embassy and the consulates.
There is a tradition in the UN that the permanent representative always hosts a grand dinner for the president or the prime minister at his home in which the community notables are invited and that opportunity was denied to Mr Haroon.
But the turf war between the two Pakistani envoys was swept aside by President Zardari when he arrived late and left without any public announcement or information whether he would come back to address the crowd. The president, however, went to some tables and shook hands with PPP supporters amid slogans of Benazir and Bhutto. Some shouts for Mr Zardari were also heard.
Guests sitting at the head table, including Finance Minister Naveed Qamar, Information Minister Sherry Rehman, Ambassador at Large Akbar Khawaja and others were told by Haqqani that the president had left because of security concerns and also because he had been overwhelmed by the emotional welcome he had received by the audience and was almost choking.
But the guests were not told about it as before Haqqani could inform the audience that President Zardari had left because of these reasons, he was stopped by some of the cabinet ministers. These ministers were not sure whether Zardari had left for good or he would return after a short break.
Soon afterwards, while only the first course of the dinner, a salad, had been served, most of the media and the guests started leaving as Haqqani told them that the president would not return.
A senior official of the embassy told some journalists later that the president had gone for a private dinner to a popular New York restaurant, Geisha, located at the Madison Avenue and 61st Street, a place he used to visit while he was living in New York before he returned to Pakistan.
Showing posts with label shaheen sehbai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shaheen sehbai. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The return of the Daylight Jackals
By Shaheen Sehbai
with reporting from Mazhar Tufail and Ahmed Noorani
WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD: The main characters of the famous ‘Midnight Jackals’ operation of the late 1989 Benazir era have now returned to the TV screens and front pages of newspapers to speak about their adventures, blaming everybody else but themselves, and portraying themselves in their new role as great promoters of truth and honesty.
Exactly 20 years later, again in a PPP-Zardari era, why and what these characters are doing have turned out to be the greatest political mystery with major political parties and leaders sucked into the storm blaming each other for unleashing these hounds. The multi-million dollar question ‘who is behind this latest sky dive into the past’ remains unanswered.
An investigation by The News revealing scattered links and connecting the dots may lead to formation of a composite picture of the people behind this great diversion from the burning issues of the day.
A few weeks ago, a top diplomat flew into Dubai and then Islamabad for intensive consultations with the PPP leadership on how to divert the national media and political focus from the so-called Minus-one and Minus-Zardari formulas based on the NRO cases pending in the Supreme Court, the demand for a trial of General Musharraf and the pressure to scrap the 17th Amendment. These issues had dominated Islamabad drawing rooms and were popping up in TV shows and columns every now and then.
Several options were discussed, insiders in Islamabad and Washington revealed to The News. The sources of these anti-Zardari campaigns was determined to be some parts of the Rawalpindi establishment, a major part of the media groups backed by the PML-N which was said to be using this campaign to build pressure on Zardari for conceding the changes in the 17th Amendment.
It was repeatedly argued that Washington was getting unusually jittery and unsure about political stability in Pakistan and the flow of generous aid, directly from Washington and through the Friends of Pakistan forum, may be delayed or massively cut if this critical issue was not addressed immediately.
The US diplomats and even spokespersons of Friends of Pakistan had in so many ways and so many times conveyed the decision that no direct cash aid would be available as long as the credibility of the process reached some acceptable comfort level. The past of the PPP leadership was hounding its present, in a way.
Thus the strategists reached the conclusion that it would be a good idea if the past of the alternate leadership, which meant the PML-N and in a roundabout way the military establishment, was exposed so that the aid-givers get the message that whoever ruled Pakistan, the issue of credibility would remain a burning question and thus it would be pointless to deprive the PPP leadership of the much-needed aid on this pretext.
It was also agreed that the judges of the restored Supreme Court be entangled in cases challenging their own legitimacy and credibility and thus forcing some of the known radical judges from opting out of hearing the NRO cases. Sacked Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar was also to be activated to stand up and challenge his removal. General Musharraf will also become active and use his millions and his Peerzadas, Malik Qayyums and Saifs to bombard the courts and the media.
The deep wound being felt by the presidency was, however, the so-called “positive intervention” of the Pakistan Army chief on the night of March 15 and 16 when President Zardari was forced to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Zardari was on record, on national TV channels and internationally, claiming that Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had become political and would never be restored but he had to eat the humble pie. He would never forget the insult.
Another sticking point was that aid for military operations, especially in Swat, Malakand and Fata, was continuing and since it was coming directly to the Army in shape of reimbursements, the political leadership was feeling isolated, somewhat humiliated and not in total control. They were being denied dollars because of the trust deficit but Pindi was enjoying the full trust. This situation was not tenable for some.
Thus the strategy evolved had to have several components. One was to deflect the Minus-one formula from Zardari. Officially the term ‘Minus-one’ was recognised by ministers on the media and attacks were launched claiming that no one could remove Zardari because it would invoke the Sindh card.
On a subtle note presidential aides and cronies, and even some diplomats, started calling their friends and media supporters bad-mouthing the intelligence agencies and some top echelons of the Army establishment. The anti-Pindi whispering campaign was so vicious that even some foreign journalists in Islamabad were surprised at the madness of such a campaign which could ultimately end up in another Oct 12, 1999-like situation when the sitting Army chief was sacked.
The ultimate component of the counter-Minus-one plan was to launch the Daylight Jackals. This would serve several purposes. It would hit at the military establishment, the intelligence agencies and cut the politicians who were now claiming to be larger than life to their size. Resurrecting the Mehrangate scandal would be the ideal tactic. The main character of the 1989 scandal, Brigadier Imtiaz Ahmed would be the best person to stir this hornet’s nest.
In his mind Brig Imtiaz, who was close to Nawaz Sharif in the past, was feeling left out after the PML-N staged a comeback in the 2008 elections and formed its government in the Punjab. When everybody else from the past had been accommodated, why not him? That was enough for him to settle some scores. It was time to strike back. He agreed to join the planning and launching of the operation.
On Aug 17, 2009, shortly after 12 noon, Brigadier Imtiaz walked into the headquarters of the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) in Islamabad to meet its Chairman Ali Arshad Hakeem. A reporter of The News saw him being escorted by the PR personnel of the Ministry of Interior. Enquiries revealed that the Brigadier had been visiting the Nadra for several days. Some of the known media cronies of the presidency in Islamabad had also been seen visiting the Nadra office frequently during these days while at night these guys would meet and plot their strategy in an F-7 house, near Restaurant Civil Junction. A Radio Pakistan executive had also allowed them to use one of the Radio Pakistan annexe in sector H-8 to late night meetings and parties.
The background of the Nadra chairman revealed more when The News investigation moved forward. His official introduction at the Nadra web site says: “Ali Arshad Hakeem has a dynamic professional background in both public and private sector organisations of Pakistan as well as abroad, and had joined the Nadra as chairman on August 12, 2008. His versatile experience had brought many value additions and a completely service oriented vision to the Nadra. He not only served in Pakistan’s Central Board of Revenue for ten years at senior management positions but had also been closely involved with business process outsourcing operations, computerisation of land records and automation of customs process in Pakistan. His special interests include data mining for national security & poverty alleviation. He holds a degree in Electrical Engineering, Business Administration and Law and believes in an optimistic change through innovation in various business and economic ventures.”
But Ali Arshad Hakeem is the son of Major-General (retd) Arshad Hakeem who was very close to Brig Imtiaz during the late 80s, serving in Karachi. Ali Arshad Hakeem also has deep family terms with Faryal Talpur, the sister of President Zardari and thus is very close to Mr Zardari who appointed him as the Nadra chairman, a highly sensitive position in view of the database it controls.
Days after his meetings at the Nadra, an important journalist of the official news agency APP started calling TV anchors and media persons on behalf of Brig Imtiaz and each time he handed over the phone to the brigadier who wanted himself on the screens. Many anchors have gone on record to say the brigadier was too eager and ready to spills the beans. One anchor wrote that the brigadier said he wanted to explode a “political nuclear bomb”. That he was going to spill the beans against his own self was irrelevant and unimportant but this time he was trying to compensate the PPP for ‘Midnight Jackals’ against Benazir Bhutto.
The other members of the team would call up every friend and ìinterestedî media person to highlight the revelations of Brig Imtiaz and for days and weeks nothing else should be discussed on the media. They were quite successful in achieving that goal, while the presidency would keep on denying that any cell existed in that house on the hill. Factually the cell was not in the presidency.
The smell of the rat about his Nadra connections became pungent when The News talked to him on the subject and tried to get his version about why he was frequently going to the Nadra under escort of the Interior Ministry officials, a fact which the Interior Ministry officially denied. He was also asked as to what were his relations with the Nadra chairman.
The wily brigadier first denied any relation with Nadra Chairman Ali Arshad Hakeem. That was his first mistake. He said that he had visited Nadra headquarters in mid August to get a new identity card as his old CNIC had expired. He said he chose to visit Nadra headquarters as other Nadra offices meant for this took a long time while Nadra headquarter could issue the card in 24 hours. He said that two days he visited Nadra headquarters for his CNIC and then later on he came to know that CNIC of his wife had also expired so he had to visit Nadra for two more days.
His second mistake was that he claimed that he had no relationship with Ali Arshad Hakeem and took appointment to meet him through some other person.
Another slip of the tongue was when he praised Ali Arshad Hakeem and said he was an important part of the present government and playing an excellent role in addressing different issues.
Sticking to his stand that he had no relations with Ali Arshad Hakeem, Brig Imtiaz said during his meetings no matter of the past was discussed at any stage.
However, Ali Arshad Hakeem, whose father Major General (retd) Hakeem Arshad Qureshi remained DMLA Karachi in eighties, when approached by The News admitted that Brigadier Imtiaz was ìa close friend of his deceased father and we have close family relationsî. He called him an Uncle.
He confirmed his meetings with Brigadier Imtiaz in mid August in his office in Nadra headquarters but categorically denied discussing any political thing with his uncle Imtiaz.
But Hakeem confirmed his close relations with President Asif Ali Zardari. Hakeem confirmed that as his father was DMLA Karachi and Munawar Talpur, husband of President Zardariís sister Faryal Talpur, was member of the Majlis Shura, both the families enjoyed close ties.
Talking to The News he said: “Yes, I have close relations with President Asif Ali Zardari who has shown his confidence in me by appointing me as the chairman Nadra.” Hakeem also admitted that he has frequent meetings with President Asif Zardari.
But on the record Hakeem only said: “All these meetings are of professional nature and have nothing to do with politics.”
After these statements of Ali Arshad Hakeem, when Brig Imtiaz was again contacted on Wednesday he conceded having very close ties with the family of Ali Arshad Hakeem.
When he was asked that a reporter had seen him escorted by Interior Ministry officials, Brig Imtiaz denied having any links with the interior ministry and started criticising Interior Minister Rehman Malik. In a direct way he also threatened that he would react “very badly” if this was published.
The nervousness and almost panic in the body language and talk of Brigadier Imtiaz revealed more than he did. He did not need a third person to get an appointment with the Nadra chairman, who called him an uncle. He did not need to make repeated visits to collect or get is or his wife’s ID cards. For uncles the cards are delivered at home. What else were these meetings for hours were discussing when cronies of the presidency were also present.
When the storm was unleashed by his statements and the military establishment and the agencies were being targeted in the media, abused and humiliated, there was visible jubilation in the presidential camp. One close aide of the president called a TV anchor in Dubai, to claim that now the focus has been diverted from Mr Zardari and at least for a few weeks we will not have sleepless nights.
Others who had plotted the scheme to re-launch Brig Imtiaz were celebrating the success in their own domains. An old media manager of the IJI, an important part of ‘Daylight Jackals’, was heard by many congratulating his associates and issuing warnings that much more was about to come if President Zardari was attacked again.
The part of the plot to attack the legitimacy of the restored judges has also been launched and sacked CJ Dogar has come on record saying he would challenge his removal in the Supreme Court.
The legal team of General Musharraf has started its comings and goings and Justice Malik Qayyum has flown to Jeddah to meet the former president where Interior Minister Rehman Malik had been a royal visitor days ago.
The part of the plot to attack the media is yet to be implemented as the operation is not yet over. The Americans, nevertheless, remain deeply suspicious and skeptical. As their first move they have already announced that out of the promised $1.5 billion aid under the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the PPP government will only get about $180 million next fiscal. That would be peanuts and would speak volumes about the confidence the Zardari regime enjoys in Washington and with Friends of Pakistan.
Presidency and govt speak: At least three important PPP leaders and spokespersons separately denied having links with Brig Imtiaz controversy or his meetings with the Nadra chairman.
Spokesman for the presidency, Farhatullah Babar while talking to The News said that keeping in view the past and credibility of Brig Imtiaz, no person would like to meet him.
He said he think that a government officer like Ali Arshad Hakeem would have never met such a person or allow such a person to visit his office. When told that both Ali and Brigadier have confirmed not one but at least four meetings at the Nadra headquarters, Babar said that he couldnít say what might have been discussed in these meeting and only Ali Arshad Hakeem could comment on this.
Babar, however, insisted that Ali Arshad Hakeem has no relation with President Asif Ali Zardari and that he is only the chairman of Nadra.
Government spokesman and federal Information Minister Qamaruzzaman Kaira when approached by The News and asked to comment on this entire situation insisted that before discussing this situation one must consider the chronology of events. He said that present blame game was started with the speech of the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.
Kaira questioned The News that if there had been a cell in presidency or Brigadier Imtiaz was to speak on winking of this cell, why all this did not start before the speech of Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. He said that after Chaudhry Nisarís allegations, one thing led to another, the media gave these allegations full coverage and a series of allegation and counter allegations were hurled at each other.
When Kaira was specifically asked about Brigadier Imtiaz’s meetings with Ali Arshad Hakeem at the Nadra headquarters, he did not deny these meetings, saying that many Army officers have been appointed in Nadra and chairman Nadra Ali Arshad Hakeem, being the son of an Army general would have some relations with Brigadier Imtiaz and that if these meetings took place they have no importance with regard to the present blame game.
Asked about close relations of Ali Arshad Hakeem with President Asif Ali Zardari, Kaira said: “There are always relations between people like we being in the government have relations with different politicians in the opposition.”
When Kaira was asked about any cell in the presidency working for this blame game and maligning the politicians, he said that he himself (Kaira) was the biggest cell.
He said that one of his statements made during a public meeting in Lahore was misunderstood. “Why are you asking me about other people when I am admitting that I am the cell,” Kaira said. When asked that whether this blame game is being done to tackle the Minus-one formula, Kaira said that there is no Minus-1 formula whatsoever.
On the question that whether presidency has some resentments over the intervention of the Pakistan Army on the night of March 15 in getting restored the deposed judges which sacked by the previous military dictator Pervez Musharraf, Kaira said there was no intervention of any kind from military in that issue.
“Your question that there was some military intervention is based on hypothesis so I would not comment on it,” Kaira concluded.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Tuesday the government and the PPP had no connection with the campaign launched by Brig Imtiaz, which, he thought, was apparently a move to protect Pervez Musharraf. He said in an interview: “We do not want to be a party to it, but Pakistan Muslim League-N has started a campaign based on baseless allegations against the PPP. Our party believes in politics of reconciliation ... I urge the opposition party to avoid playing blame-game. Let us sort out issues positively and politically.”
According to a report, when he was asked if the people who were behind Brig Imtiazís smear campaign against politicians were the same who launched the ëminus-oneí formula, Malik said he was not sure who was behind it. “But one thing I can say is that the minus-one formula is dead because the nation voted in PPPís favour, giving it the right to complete its tenure.”
He, however, hinted that Brig Imtiazís sudden appearance on the political scene might have been patronised by those who wanted to protect the former president.
Information Minister Kaira said the recent spate of statements by former intelligence chiefs would only harm national harmony. Kaira said the country already confronted many challenges, and maligning each other would only result in political anarchy.
with reporting from Mazhar Tufail and Ahmed Noorani
WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD: The main characters of the famous ‘Midnight Jackals’ operation of the late 1989 Benazir era have now returned to the TV screens and front pages of newspapers to speak about their adventures, blaming everybody else but themselves, and portraying themselves in their new role as great promoters of truth and honesty.
Exactly 20 years later, again in a PPP-Zardari era, why and what these characters are doing have turned out to be the greatest political mystery with major political parties and leaders sucked into the storm blaming each other for unleashing these hounds. The multi-million dollar question ‘who is behind this latest sky dive into the past’ remains unanswered.
An investigation by The News revealing scattered links and connecting the dots may lead to formation of a composite picture of the people behind this great diversion from the burning issues of the day.
A few weeks ago, a top diplomat flew into Dubai and then Islamabad for intensive consultations with the PPP leadership on how to divert the national media and political focus from the so-called Minus-one and Minus-Zardari formulas based on the NRO cases pending in the Supreme Court, the demand for a trial of General Musharraf and the pressure to scrap the 17th Amendment. These issues had dominated Islamabad drawing rooms and were popping up in TV shows and columns every now and then.
Several options were discussed, insiders in Islamabad and Washington revealed to The News. The sources of these anti-Zardari campaigns was determined to be some parts of the Rawalpindi establishment, a major part of the media groups backed by the PML-N which was said to be using this campaign to build pressure on Zardari for conceding the changes in the 17th Amendment.
It was repeatedly argued that Washington was getting unusually jittery and unsure about political stability in Pakistan and the flow of generous aid, directly from Washington and through the Friends of Pakistan forum, may be delayed or massively cut if this critical issue was not addressed immediately.
The US diplomats and even spokespersons of Friends of Pakistan had in so many ways and so many times conveyed the decision that no direct cash aid would be available as long as the credibility of the process reached some acceptable comfort level. The past of the PPP leadership was hounding its present, in a way.
Thus the strategists reached the conclusion that it would be a good idea if the past of the alternate leadership, which meant the PML-N and in a roundabout way the military establishment, was exposed so that the aid-givers get the message that whoever ruled Pakistan, the issue of credibility would remain a burning question and thus it would be pointless to deprive the PPP leadership of the much-needed aid on this pretext.
It was also agreed that the judges of the restored Supreme Court be entangled in cases challenging their own legitimacy and credibility and thus forcing some of the known radical judges from opting out of hearing the NRO cases. Sacked Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar was also to be activated to stand up and challenge his removal. General Musharraf will also become active and use his millions and his Peerzadas, Malik Qayyums and Saifs to bombard the courts and the media.
The deep wound being felt by the presidency was, however, the so-called “positive intervention” of the Pakistan Army chief on the night of March 15 and 16 when President Zardari was forced to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Zardari was on record, on national TV channels and internationally, claiming that Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had become political and would never be restored but he had to eat the humble pie. He would never forget the insult.
Another sticking point was that aid for military operations, especially in Swat, Malakand and Fata, was continuing and since it was coming directly to the Army in shape of reimbursements, the political leadership was feeling isolated, somewhat humiliated and not in total control. They were being denied dollars because of the trust deficit but Pindi was enjoying the full trust. This situation was not tenable for some.
Thus the strategy evolved had to have several components. One was to deflect the Minus-one formula from Zardari. Officially the term ‘Minus-one’ was recognised by ministers on the media and attacks were launched claiming that no one could remove Zardari because it would invoke the Sindh card.
On a subtle note presidential aides and cronies, and even some diplomats, started calling their friends and media supporters bad-mouthing the intelligence agencies and some top echelons of the Army establishment. The anti-Pindi whispering campaign was so vicious that even some foreign journalists in Islamabad were surprised at the madness of such a campaign which could ultimately end up in another Oct 12, 1999-like situation when the sitting Army chief was sacked.
The ultimate component of the counter-Minus-one plan was to launch the Daylight Jackals. This would serve several purposes. It would hit at the military establishment, the intelligence agencies and cut the politicians who were now claiming to be larger than life to their size. Resurrecting the Mehrangate scandal would be the ideal tactic. The main character of the 1989 scandal, Brigadier Imtiaz Ahmed would be the best person to stir this hornet’s nest.
In his mind Brig Imtiaz, who was close to Nawaz Sharif in the past, was feeling left out after the PML-N staged a comeback in the 2008 elections and formed its government in the Punjab. When everybody else from the past had been accommodated, why not him? That was enough for him to settle some scores. It was time to strike back. He agreed to join the planning and launching of the operation.
On Aug 17, 2009, shortly after 12 noon, Brigadier Imtiaz walked into the headquarters of the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) in Islamabad to meet its Chairman Ali Arshad Hakeem. A reporter of The News saw him being escorted by the PR personnel of the Ministry of Interior. Enquiries revealed that the Brigadier had been visiting the Nadra for several days. Some of the known media cronies of the presidency in Islamabad had also been seen visiting the Nadra office frequently during these days while at night these guys would meet and plot their strategy in an F-7 house, near Restaurant Civil Junction. A Radio Pakistan executive had also allowed them to use one of the Radio Pakistan annexe in sector H-8 to late night meetings and parties.
The background of the Nadra chairman revealed more when The News investigation moved forward. His official introduction at the Nadra web site says: “Ali Arshad Hakeem has a dynamic professional background in both public and private sector organisations of Pakistan as well as abroad, and had joined the Nadra as chairman on August 12, 2008. His versatile experience had brought many value additions and a completely service oriented vision to the Nadra. He not only served in Pakistan’s Central Board of Revenue for ten years at senior management positions but had also been closely involved with business process outsourcing operations, computerisation of land records and automation of customs process in Pakistan. His special interests include data mining for national security & poverty alleviation. He holds a degree in Electrical Engineering, Business Administration and Law and believes in an optimistic change through innovation in various business and economic ventures.”
But Ali Arshad Hakeem is the son of Major-General (retd) Arshad Hakeem who was very close to Brig Imtiaz during the late 80s, serving in Karachi. Ali Arshad Hakeem also has deep family terms with Faryal Talpur, the sister of President Zardari and thus is very close to Mr Zardari who appointed him as the Nadra chairman, a highly sensitive position in view of the database it controls.
Days after his meetings at the Nadra, an important journalist of the official news agency APP started calling TV anchors and media persons on behalf of Brig Imtiaz and each time he handed over the phone to the brigadier who wanted himself on the screens. Many anchors have gone on record to say the brigadier was too eager and ready to spills the beans. One anchor wrote that the brigadier said he wanted to explode a “political nuclear bomb”. That he was going to spill the beans against his own self was irrelevant and unimportant but this time he was trying to compensate the PPP for ‘Midnight Jackals’ against Benazir Bhutto.
The other members of the team would call up every friend and ìinterestedî media person to highlight the revelations of Brig Imtiaz and for days and weeks nothing else should be discussed on the media. They were quite successful in achieving that goal, while the presidency would keep on denying that any cell existed in that house on the hill. Factually the cell was not in the presidency.
The smell of the rat about his Nadra connections became pungent when The News talked to him on the subject and tried to get his version about why he was frequently going to the Nadra under escort of the Interior Ministry officials, a fact which the Interior Ministry officially denied. He was also asked as to what were his relations with the Nadra chairman.
The wily brigadier first denied any relation with Nadra Chairman Ali Arshad Hakeem. That was his first mistake. He said that he had visited Nadra headquarters in mid August to get a new identity card as his old CNIC had expired. He said he chose to visit Nadra headquarters as other Nadra offices meant for this took a long time while Nadra headquarter could issue the card in 24 hours. He said that two days he visited Nadra headquarters for his CNIC and then later on he came to know that CNIC of his wife had also expired so he had to visit Nadra for two more days.
His second mistake was that he claimed that he had no relationship with Ali Arshad Hakeem and took appointment to meet him through some other person.
Another slip of the tongue was when he praised Ali Arshad Hakeem and said he was an important part of the present government and playing an excellent role in addressing different issues.
Sticking to his stand that he had no relations with Ali Arshad Hakeem, Brig Imtiaz said during his meetings no matter of the past was discussed at any stage.
However, Ali Arshad Hakeem, whose father Major General (retd) Hakeem Arshad Qureshi remained DMLA Karachi in eighties, when approached by The News admitted that Brigadier Imtiaz was ìa close friend of his deceased father and we have close family relationsî. He called him an Uncle.
He confirmed his meetings with Brigadier Imtiaz in mid August in his office in Nadra headquarters but categorically denied discussing any political thing with his uncle Imtiaz.
But Hakeem confirmed his close relations with President Asif Ali Zardari. Hakeem confirmed that as his father was DMLA Karachi and Munawar Talpur, husband of President Zardariís sister Faryal Talpur, was member of the Majlis Shura, both the families enjoyed close ties.
Talking to The News he said: “Yes, I have close relations with President Asif Ali Zardari who has shown his confidence in me by appointing me as the chairman Nadra.” Hakeem also admitted that he has frequent meetings with President Asif Zardari.
But on the record Hakeem only said: “All these meetings are of professional nature and have nothing to do with politics.”
After these statements of Ali Arshad Hakeem, when Brig Imtiaz was again contacted on Wednesday he conceded having very close ties with the family of Ali Arshad Hakeem.
When he was asked that a reporter had seen him escorted by Interior Ministry officials, Brig Imtiaz denied having any links with the interior ministry and started criticising Interior Minister Rehman Malik. In a direct way he also threatened that he would react “very badly” if this was published.
The nervousness and almost panic in the body language and talk of Brigadier Imtiaz revealed more than he did. He did not need a third person to get an appointment with the Nadra chairman, who called him an uncle. He did not need to make repeated visits to collect or get is or his wife’s ID cards. For uncles the cards are delivered at home. What else were these meetings for hours were discussing when cronies of the presidency were also present.
When the storm was unleashed by his statements and the military establishment and the agencies were being targeted in the media, abused and humiliated, there was visible jubilation in the presidential camp. One close aide of the president called a TV anchor in Dubai, to claim that now the focus has been diverted from Mr Zardari and at least for a few weeks we will not have sleepless nights.
Others who had plotted the scheme to re-launch Brig Imtiaz were celebrating the success in their own domains. An old media manager of the IJI, an important part of ‘Daylight Jackals’, was heard by many congratulating his associates and issuing warnings that much more was about to come if President Zardari was attacked again.
The part of the plot to attack the legitimacy of the restored judges has also been launched and sacked CJ Dogar has come on record saying he would challenge his removal in the Supreme Court.
The legal team of General Musharraf has started its comings and goings and Justice Malik Qayyum has flown to Jeddah to meet the former president where Interior Minister Rehman Malik had been a royal visitor days ago.
The part of the plot to attack the media is yet to be implemented as the operation is not yet over. The Americans, nevertheless, remain deeply suspicious and skeptical. As their first move they have already announced that out of the promised $1.5 billion aid under the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the PPP government will only get about $180 million next fiscal. That would be peanuts and would speak volumes about the confidence the Zardari regime enjoys in Washington and with Friends of Pakistan.
Presidency and govt speak: At least three important PPP leaders and spokespersons separately denied having links with Brig Imtiaz controversy or his meetings with the Nadra chairman.
Spokesman for the presidency, Farhatullah Babar while talking to The News said that keeping in view the past and credibility of Brig Imtiaz, no person would like to meet him.
He said he think that a government officer like Ali Arshad Hakeem would have never met such a person or allow such a person to visit his office. When told that both Ali and Brigadier have confirmed not one but at least four meetings at the Nadra headquarters, Babar said that he couldnít say what might have been discussed in these meeting and only Ali Arshad Hakeem could comment on this.
Babar, however, insisted that Ali Arshad Hakeem has no relation with President Asif Ali Zardari and that he is only the chairman of Nadra.
Government spokesman and federal Information Minister Qamaruzzaman Kaira when approached by The News and asked to comment on this entire situation insisted that before discussing this situation one must consider the chronology of events. He said that present blame game was started with the speech of the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.
Kaira questioned The News that if there had been a cell in presidency or Brigadier Imtiaz was to speak on winking of this cell, why all this did not start before the speech of Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. He said that after Chaudhry Nisarís allegations, one thing led to another, the media gave these allegations full coverage and a series of allegation and counter allegations were hurled at each other.
When Kaira was specifically asked about Brigadier Imtiaz’s meetings with Ali Arshad Hakeem at the Nadra headquarters, he did not deny these meetings, saying that many Army officers have been appointed in Nadra and chairman Nadra Ali Arshad Hakeem, being the son of an Army general would have some relations with Brigadier Imtiaz and that if these meetings took place they have no importance with regard to the present blame game.
Asked about close relations of Ali Arshad Hakeem with President Asif Ali Zardari, Kaira said: “There are always relations between people like we being in the government have relations with different politicians in the opposition.”
When Kaira was asked about any cell in the presidency working for this blame game and maligning the politicians, he said that he himself (Kaira) was the biggest cell.
He said that one of his statements made during a public meeting in Lahore was misunderstood. “Why are you asking me about other people when I am admitting that I am the cell,” Kaira said. When asked that whether this blame game is being done to tackle the Minus-one formula, Kaira said that there is no Minus-1 formula whatsoever.
On the question that whether presidency has some resentments over the intervention of the Pakistan Army on the night of March 15 in getting restored the deposed judges which sacked by the previous military dictator Pervez Musharraf, Kaira said there was no intervention of any kind from military in that issue.
“Your question that there was some military intervention is based on hypothesis so I would not comment on it,” Kaira concluded.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Tuesday the government and the PPP had no connection with the campaign launched by Brig Imtiaz, which, he thought, was apparently a move to protect Pervez Musharraf. He said in an interview: “We do not want to be a party to it, but Pakistan Muslim League-N has started a campaign based on baseless allegations against the PPP. Our party believes in politics of reconciliation ... I urge the opposition party to avoid playing blame-game. Let us sort out issues positively and politically.”
According to a report, when he was asked if the people who were behind Brig Imtiazís smear campaign against politicians were the same who launched the ëminus-oneí formula, Malik said he was not sure who was behind it. “But one thing I can say is that the minus-one formula is dead because the nation voted in PPPís favour, giving it the right to complete its tenure.”
He, however, hinted that Brig Imtiazís sudden appearance on the political scene might have been patronised by those who wanted to protect the former president.
Information Minister Kaira said the recent spate of statements by former intelligence chiefs would only harm national harmony. Kaira said the country already confronted many challenges, and maligning each other would only result in political anarchy.
Why Zardari has now jumped on Musharraf
By Shaheen Sehbai
KARACHI: Asif Ali Zardari’s ultimate decision to finally come out of the closet and express his real views about General (retd) Pervez Musharraf, calling him a relic of the past, is nothing new and has been repeatedly expressed by him in private.
In my last session with him, with Dr Shahid Masood of Geo TV also present, about two weeks back in Islamabad, he had gone even one step further. “If they pressurise me too much, I would rather pack up the National Assembly, call fresh elections and let them deal with the president and the Army,” he had said.
By “they” he had clearly meant the forces agitating for the restoration of the deposed judges, including the PML-N and the lawyers. “I will see how much power they have to get the judges restored or remove Musharraf,” he had said in a challenging tone, broadly hinting that he may even go and live abroad with his family, which needs him desperately after Benazir Bhutto’s sudden demise.
That was before Zardari had decided to take on Musharraf head on, though the timing of his attack is extremely important and meaningful. Coming under fire from many sides, he has practically thwarted any criticism of his hitherto pro-Musharraf policies in the Central Executive Committee of the PPP, scheduled to meet on Saturday, as a starter. Many PPP stalwarts and quiet but annoyed leaders were sharpening their knives to go for him.
Secondly, he has attempted to control the damage caused by the fast deteriorating relations with Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N, to keep the coalition together and gear it up for the constitutional amendments that he intends to move, clipping Musharraf’s powers and restoring the judges.
But the most important reason according to my information is a lot of fear and apprehension that before his wings were clipped, Musharraf may launch a final commando type attack on the political system and try to pre-empt his ultimate transformation into a powerless and spineless Fazal Elahi Chaudhry.
One indication of this pre-emptive strike was given in an article in this newspaper by well-informed defence analyst Ikram Sehgal who wrote that Musharraf may be thinking of removing General Pervez Ashfaq Kayani and appointing his relative, ISI’s Nadeem Taj, as the next Chief of the Army Staff while he still had the power to do that.
When an official comment was sought on this sensitive issue from President Musharraf’s spokesman Rashid Qureshi, his standard answer to Ansar Abbasi of The News in Islamabad was: “I have no information and I have not even read Mr Ikram Sehgal’s article.”
Sehgal had called this info as “unsubstantiated rumours” and probably this is what it may be. According to my sources, clear messages have been sent to the presidency from the most relevant quarters that at this stage no disruption of the political process would be welcomed, though Musharraf may be itching to act against what he describes as total mismanagement of the economy and political turmoil after the elections.
The gist of these messages, some sources in the PPP say, have also been conveyed to Zardari and ever since his tone and tenor vis-à-vis Musharraf has changed.
Why Zardari picked up the Indian media to deliver this message is not clear but what is obvious is that he has been under tremendous pressure from within his party and the political spectrum outside to change the wishy-washy stance of the PPP concerning Pervez Musharraf and the judges as it was causing grave damage to the party and conversely consolidating Nawaz Sharif, who was looking like a seasoned and mature principled politician as compared to Zardari.
In the long run, this was not acceptable to the PPP leader. He was constantly absorbing the pressures even at the risk of becoming unpopular for a while because of obvious assurances and guarantees that Benazir Bhutto in the first place, and then he himself, may have given to the presidency, the Army and the Americans.
The smooth transition after the Feb 18 elections was also possible because both the sides were adhering to the secret understandings, especially Zardari, as he had to receive a lot more than he had to give in the short term.
The lingering threat of corruption and money laundering cases, both in and outside Pakistan, was another huge factor why Zardari was soft and accommodative for Musharraf.
All that may appear to have changed when the last and final corruption case against him was dropped or thrown out by the court hearing it. Now he is clean like any clean person could be and thus could go after anyone who challenges his authority.
But the real turning point came when Musharraf started to panic and sought tacit assurances from the powers that matter on whether they would stand by him or the political system. The answers that he got, again tacitly, was a big no, which meant that if the political system, through a proper and dignified way eliminated him, he would have to say goodbye.
That political system and the constitutional and political strategy of the PPP leader is to be tested in the coming weeks. With Musharraf fading out, he believes there would be no problem in mustering the two-thirds majority in both the houses but the key hurdle to cross would be Nawaz Sharif’s insistence that the deposed judges must be reinstated.
Zardari is almost sold out to the idea that if the sitting PCO judges cannot be retained after the restoration of the deposed ones, then all those who ever took oath on any PCO must be thrown out and a totally new judiciary be recruited, through a process of parliamentary scrutiny. This he calls the true spirit of the Charter of Democracy and says it will weed out all the unwanted judges, both who are liked or disliked by the PPP and the PML-N and give the judiciary a fresh start.
The only impediment in this very principled position is Mian Nawaz Sharif. But if, after taking on Musharraf and winning, Zardari insists, this may ultimately be the compromise solution which everyone may accept.
KARACHI: Asif Ali Zardari’s ultimate decision to finally come out of the closet and express his real views about General (retd) Pervez Musharraf, calling him a relic of the past, is nothing new and has been repeatedly expressed by him in private.
In my last session with him, with Dr Shahid Masood of Geo TV also present, about two weeks back in Islamabad, he had gone even one step further. “If they pressurise me too much, I would rather pack up the National Assembly, call fresh elections and let them deal with the president and the Army,” he had said.
By “they” he had clearly meant the forces agitating for the restoration of the deposed judges, including the PML-N and the lawyers. “I will see how much power they have to get the judges restored or remove Musharraf,” he had said in a challenging tone, broadly hinting that he may even go and live abroad with his family, which needs him desperately after Benazir Bhutto’s sudden demise.
That was before Zardari had decided to take on Musharraf head on, though the timing of his attack is extremely important and meaningful. Coming under fire from many sides, he has practically thwarted any criticism of his hitherto pro-Musharraf policies in the Central Executive Committee of the PPP, scheduled to meet on Saturday, as a starter. Many PPP stalwarts and quiet but annoyed leaders were sharpening their knives to go for him.
Secondly, he has attempted to control the damage caused by the fast deteriorating relations with Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N, to keep the coalition together and gear it up for the constitutional amendments that he intends to move, clipping Musharraf’s powers and restoring the judges.
But the most important reason according to my information is a lot of fear and apprehension that before his wings were clipped, Musharraf may launch a final commando type attack on the political system and try to pre-empt his ultimate transformation into a powerless and spineless Fazal Elahi Chaudhry.
One indication of this pre-emptive strike was given in an article in this newspaper by well-informed defence analyst Ikram Sehgal who wrote that Musharraf may be thinking of removing General Pervez Ashfaq Kayani and appointing his relative, ISI’s Nadeem Taj, as the next Chief of the Army Staff while he still had the power to do that.
When an official comment was sought on this sensitive issue from President Musharraf’s spokesman Rashid Qureshi, his standard answer to Ansar Abbasi of The News in Islamabad was: “I have no information and I have not even read Mr Ikram Sehgal’s article.”
Sehgal had called this info as “unsubstantiated rumours” and probably this is what it may be. According to my sources, clear messages have been sent to the presidency from the most relevant quarters that at this stage no disruption of the political process would be welcomed, though Musharraf may be itching to act against what he describes as total mismanagement of the economy and political turmoil after the elections.
The gist of these messages, some sources in the PPP say, have also been conveyed to Zardari and ever since his tone and tenor vis-à-vis Musharraf has changed.
Why Zardari picked up the Indian media to deliver this message is not clear but what is obvious is that he has been under tremendous pressure from within his party and the political spectrum outside to change the wishy-washy stance of the PPP concerning Pervez Musharraf and the judges as it was causing grave damage to the party and conversely consolidating Nawaz Sharif, who was looking like a seasoned and mature principled politician as compared to Zardari.
In the long run, this was not acceptable to the PPP leader. He was constantly absorbing the pressures even at the risk of becoming unpopular for a while because of obvious assurances and guarantees that Benazir Bhutto in the first place, and then he himself, may have given to the presidency, the Army and the Americans.
The smooth transition after the Feb 18 elections was also possible because both the sides were adhering to the secret understandings, especially Zardari, as he had to receive a lot more than he had to give in the short term.
The lingering threat of corruption and money laundering cases, both in and outside Pakistan, was another huge factor why Zardari was soft and accommodative for Musharraf.
All that may appear to have changed when the last and final corruption case against him was dropped or thrown out by the court hearing it. Now he is clean like any clean person could be and thus could go after anyone who challenges his authority.
But the real turning point came when Musharraf started to panic and sought tacit assurances from the powers that matter on whether they would stand by him or the political system. The answers that he got, again tacitly, was a big no, which meant that if the political system, through a proper and dignified way eliminated him, he would have to say goodbye.
That political system and the constitutional and political strategy of the PPP leader is to be tested in the coming weeks. With Musharraf fading out, he believes there would be no problem in mustering the two-thirds majority in both the houses but the key hurdle to cross would be Nawaz Sharif’s insistence that the deposed judges must be reinstated.
Zardari is almost sold out to the idea that if the sitting PCO judges cannot be retained after the restoration of the deposed ones, then all those who ever took oath on any PCO must be thrown out and a totally new judiciary be recruited, through a process of parliamentary scrutiny. This he calls the true spirit of the Charter of Democracy and says it will weed out all the unwanted judges, both who are liked or disliked by the PPP and the PML-N and give the judiciary a fresh start.
The only impediment in this very principled position is Mian Nawaz Sharif. But if, after taking on Musharraf and winning, Zardari insists, this may ultimately be the compromise solution which everyone may accept.
All power players focus on constitutional knock-out
Kerry-Lugar law’s Muridke clause alienates Army from; NRO-hit presidency; Zardari falls back on Nawaz; ready to give up 17th Amendment powers
By Shaheen Sehbai
KARACHI: An intense, behind the scenes, strategic and decisive review of the current political situation has begun among major power players, both political and non-political, to quickly decide how to stabilise the situation, seriously threatened by impending questions about the fate of those who benefited from the infamous NRO and are now in top positions of the country.
After detailed background interviews and sessions with most of the stakeholders, it is now becoming clear that unless the present system is cleansed and the major irritants are removed, the desperately needed political stability and the required moral and political support for the on-going civil war-like situation would not be available. This may, and probably already is, seriously hampering the military-cum-security operations against the hit-and-run or hit-and-die terrorists roaming all over the country.
Although the apparent problem is the uncertainty about what would happen to the NRO in parliament and even if passed by a simple majority, what may happen if the Supreme Court strikes down the controversial law ab initio, the issue which is driving everyone crazy is the wide gulf that has emerged between the top civilian and military leadership on how to handle America and the war on terror, denials and clarifications notwithstanding.
A well-informed insider said things had gone so bad that the military leaders had refused to meet President Asif Ali Zardari recently but it was Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani who persuaded the Pindi people to at least convey their views in a face-to-face sitting so a patch up, if possible, may be attempted. That effort too did not work.
Unfortunately, or probably in the interest of the system as the other side may argue, the political wings of our military establishment (read agencies), which had almost become redundant and were dormant for some months, have now come back into action with full force.
According to a recent BBC analysis: “The military launched a massive public relations exercise, briefing sympathetic talk-show hosts and journalists, who were encouraged to whip up public opinion against the (Kerry-Lugar) Bill. General Kayani also secretly met the opposition politician Shahbaz Sharif, the Punjab CM, who the Army had ostracised until now.”
Though such behind-the-scene interference has always been a major factor in political changes in the country, it is never legitimate or desirable. The Army is unhappy and angry because Zardari has given away too many concessions to the Americans and the GHQ realises that if the Kerry-Lugar Bill was to be implemented as desired by Washington, Pakistani cities could soon turn into battlegrounds between the Army and the Lashkar Tayyaba, the Jaish Mohammed and Taliban forces combined.
So far the GHQ has kept the Lashkar Tayyaba quiet by not acceding to the US demands of attacking or even touching Muridke, arguing that once this sleeping elephant wakes up, it could turn around and trample our own forces. After all, the LeT was raised and trained by our military establishment to fight the Indians in Kashmir and they are good at it. Turning their guns inwards, with TTP suicide bombers roaming everywhere, would turn Pakistan into a burning inferno, ready to collapse. Thus the Kerry-Lugar Bill is considered to be a recipe for instant disaster.
These arguments apart, the fact, however, is that the politicians are again failing to handle their own affairs in a deft manner and may again have provided the opportunity or the space for such behind-the-scene military intervention. One such occasion was provided on March 15 when the long march threatened the system.
Leading political parties are weighing their options. Consultations, often late in the night between key leaders, are at a peak to find some formula which may save the political parties from the embarrassment of voting for a black law but at the same time saving the system from failing once again.
The bottom line is how to change the image of the presidency, how to bring back its credibility and how to make it an institution which could be trusted and respected, by the people and its armed forces alike. President Asif Zardari, who had the God-given opportunity to rise to the occasion, has failed miserably by acting in a cavalier manner, by destroying his own credibility and by foisting upon the nation a coterie of cronies who may have been good providers of goods and services to him in jail but are not fit by any standard to run the affairs of the country.
This personalised style of governance has confused all political leaders and parties. They do not know whether to support Zardari on the NRO or to take a principled stand against him. The position of PPP allies is extremely difficult. The ANP and the JUI are inclined to stay neutral at best, although publicly they have opposed the NRO repeatedly. Abstention may also not help Zardari.
The MQM is on a crossroads as the party has recently announced a major makeover of its public face, trying to go into Punjab and other parts of Pakistan and transform into a country-wide party. But it is stuck with the PPP in Sindh and going against the NRO would cause a serious breach in these relations since it would again be seen as an anti-Sindh move, aimed at supporting the Punjabi political and military establishment.
The MQM think tanks do not want to get into a situation in which the apparently stable province could fall back into the dreaded urban-rural conflict once again, with the Taliban waiting on the outskirts of Karachi to strike at the city as soon as they get the chance.
So far, MQM strategists say, the Taliban have refrained from attacking Karachi because firstly the level of public vigilance in the city is far greater and intense because of the omni-present MQM cadres on the streets, and secondly because the Pathans in Karachi seriously believe that their economic and financial interests would be severely hit if Taliban terrorism disrupts the city.
So the Pukhtoons are in no mood to secretly provide sanctuaries to suicide bombers and could openly confront them if need be. On this issue, they and the MQM are on the same page, with strong political support from the ANP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Several meetings between the MQM and Pathan leadership on this issue have already raised the level of mutual trust and coordination for joint action.
Yet for the MQM to openly support the NRO would be a retrogressive political decision. Conversely, if the MQM came out publicly against the NRO and offered to present all its beneficiaries to take their cases to the courts, the party will gain moral high ground and the party will get a facelift throughout the country, which could otherwise take years to accomplish.
For the PPP itself, the NRO is a major divisive issue. Except for the few top beneficiaries, the general PPP cadres had nothing to do with it and privately are deadly opposed to voting for such a black law. But they have other interests associated with staying in power and they would not like to rock the boat, if the NRO threatens to derail the current PPP stint in power.
The feeling in some PPP circles is that if the NRO strikes at Zardari and his cronies, rural Sindh, where the PPP has grass root support for the Bhuttos, would not react as fiercely as many predict it would. This may be so because Zardari and his Sindhi friends, who were never part of the Benazir circle, have generated enough ill will and animosity in the last 18 months. Some have been forced to recall the funny story of the coffin thief of a village and his son. It is better not to repeat that story.
The prime minister appears to be in two minds and would publicly like to support the president but he had himself refused to take any benefit from the NRO and had his own cases judged by the regular Musharraf courts under old laws. That one correct political decision may help him immensely when the NRO may keep haunting others.
But he is also lobbying secretly for the principled political parties, both allies and opponents, to take a stand against the NRO so that the system could be cleansed and stabilised. How much support he can muster within the PPP is a moot question but if he takes a public position, many would come forward to support him. His government would in no case fall because the PML-N has offered to sustain it.
The intense discussions behind closed doors are focusing on finding some way out before the NRO explodes into the political scene and starts rocking the boat. Political wings of agencies are secretly lobbying members of parliament to vote out the law, which may force the president to think about giving up his powers or to resign.
Various compromise formulas are also doing the rounds, some code named minus-5 and others minus-12. The five and 12 are the personal friends and helpers of Zardari during his jail time, who have now been posted on sensitive state positions.
The stand taken by the Fata members is one such example of immense relevance. Although, they have taken up an anti-government position on a different issue, they want to sit in the opposition and would not like to side with the pro-NRO lobby. If that happens, it would be a major blow to the Zardari camp. The role of the secret agencies thus would come out in the open.
An overriding desire and effort in all the camps, including the non-political establishment, is not to rock the entire system. Everyone agrees in private that if President Zardari and his group of few unwanted aides were sidelined, the system will stabilise so that the focus can be shifted to the war against terrorists. But resilience and the fighting spirit of Zardari is being tested by the day.
According to one source located within the presidency, tension in the presidential camp is mounting and a battle headquarter is being set up to mobilise forces, appease allies, win over opponents and get the NRO passed by parliament, even bulldozed if necessary. But all the excitement suddenly dies down when the question of the Supreme Court striking down the NRO comes up. Everyone is suddenly dumbfounded.
The latest initiative by President Zardari to meet PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif to sort out their issues is viewed in the presidency as their last ditch political offensive to get Nawaz Sharif on his side. The argument that will be pitched to him will be that the military establishment is again out to derail the political process and in this fight the politicians should stay on the same side.
Although, Nawaz is strongly of the same views, it is highly unlikely that he will take sides with Zardari unless some huge, really huge, concessions are made and immediately, without waiting for any minute, hour or day.
Informed presidential sources say President Zardari is now ready to give up all his powers under the 17th Amendment, including the powers to appoint the Army chief but whether it is too late and too little for Nawaz to accept this bait is not yet clear. What is clear is that Nawaz has been bitten twice or thrice by the same snake hole and he may not like to poke his finger in that hole again.
By Shaheen Sehbai
KARACHI: An intense, behind the scenes, strategic and decisive review of the current political situation has begun among major power players, both political and non-political, to quickly decide how to stabilise the situation, seriously threatened by impending questions about the fate of those who benefited from the infamous NRO and are now in top positions of the country.
After detailed background interviews and sessions with most of the stakeholders, it is now becoming clear that unless the present system is cleansed and the major irritants are removed, the desperately needed political stability and the required moral and political support for the on-going civil war-like situation would not be available. This may, and probably already is, seriously hampering the military-cum-security operations against the hit-and-run or hit-and-die terrorists roaming all over the country.
Although the apparent problem is the uncertainty about what would happen to the NRO in parliament and even if passed by a simple majority, what may happen if the Supreme Court strikes down the controversial law ab initio, the issue which is driving everyone crazy is the wide gulf that has emerged between the top civilian and military leadership on how to handle America and the war on terror, denials and clarifications notwithstanding.
A well-informed insider said things had gone so bad that the military leaders had refused to meet President Asif Ali Zardari recently but it was Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani who persuaded the Pindi people to at least convey their views in a face-to-face sitting so a patch up, if possible, may be attempted. That effort too did not work.
Unfortunately, or probably in the interest of the system as the other side may argue, the political wings of our military establishment (read agencies), which had almost become redundant and were dormant for some months, have now come back into action with full force.
According to a recent BBC analysis: “The military launched a massive public relations exercise, briefing sympathetic talk-show hosts and journalists, who were encouraged to whip up public opinion against the (Kerry-Lugar) Bill. General Kayani also secretly met the opposition politician Shahbaz Sharif, the Punjab CM, who the Army had ostracised until now.”
Though such behind-the-scene interference has always been a major factor in political changes in the country, it is never legitimate or desirable. The Army is unhappy and angry because Zardari has given away too many concessions to the Americans and the GHQ realises that if the Kerry-Lugar Bill was to be implemented as desired by Washington, Pakistani cities could soon turn into battlegrounds between the Army and the Lashkar Tayyaba, the Jaish Mohammed and Taliban forces combined.
So far the GHQ has kept the Lashkar Tayyaba quiet by not acceding to the US demands of attacking or even touching Muridke, arguing that once this sleeping elephant wakes up, it could turn around and trample our own forces. After all, the LeT was raised and trained by our military establishment to fight the Indians in Kashmir and they are good at it. Turning their guns inwards, with TTP suicide bombers roaming everywhere, would turn Pakistan into a burning inferno, ready to collapse. Thus the Kerry-Lugar Bill is considered to be a recipe for instant disaster.
These arguments apart, the fact, however, is that the politicians are again failing to handle their own affairs in a deft manner and may again have provided the opportunity or the space for such behind-the-scene military intervention. One such occasion was provided on March 15 when the long march threatened the system.
Leading political parties are weighing their options. Consultations, often late in the night between key leaders, are at a peak to find some formula which may save the political parties from the embarrassment of voting for a black law but at the same time saving the system from failing once again.
The bottom line is how to change the image of the presidency, how to bring back its credibility and how to make it an institution which could be trusted and respected, by the people and its armed forces alike. President Asif Zardari, who had the God-given opportunity to rise to the occasion, has failed miserably by acting in a cavalier manner, by destroying his own credibility and by foisting upon the nation a coterie of cronies who may have been good providers of goods and services to him in jail but are not fit by any standard to run the affairs of the country.
This personalised style of governance has confused all political leaders and parties. They do not know whether to support Zardari on the NRO or to take a principled stand against him. The position of PPP allies is extremely difficult. The ANP and the JUI are inclined to stay neutral at best, although publicly they have opposed the NRO repeatedly. Abstention may also not help Zardari.
The MQM is on a crossroads as the party has recently announced a major makeover of its public face, trying to go into Punjab and other parts of Pakistan and transform into a country-wide party. But it is stuck with the PPP in Sindh and going against the NRO would cause a serious breach in these relations since it would again be seen as an anti-Sindh move, aimed at supporting the Punjabi political and military establishment.
The MQM think tanks do not want to get into a situation in which the apparently stable province could fall back into the dreaded urban-rural conflict once again, with the Taliban waiting on the outskirts of Karachi to strike at the city as soon as they get the chance.
So far, MQM strategists say, the Taliban have refrained from attacking Karachi because firstly the level of public vigilance in the city is far greater and intense because of the omni-present MQM cadres on the streets, and secondly because the Pathans in Karachi seriously believe that their economic and financial interests would be severely hit if Taliban terrorism disrupts the city.
So the Pukhtoons are in no mood to secretly provide sanctuaries to suicide bombers and could openly confront them if need be. On this issue, they and the MQM are on the same page, with strong political support from the ANP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Several meetings between the MQM and Pathan leadership on this issue have already raised the level of mutual trust and coordination for joint action.
Yet for the MQM to openly support the NRO would be a retrogressive political decision. Conversely, if the MQM came out publicly against the NRO and offered to present all its beneficiaries to take their cases to the courts, the party will gain moral high ground and the party will get a facelift throughout the country, which could otherwise take years to accomplish.
For the PPP itself, the NRO is a major divisive issue. Except for the few top beneficiaries, the general PPP cadres had nothing to do with it and privately are deadly opposed to voting for such a black law. But they have other interests associated with staying in power and they would not like to rock the boat, if the NRO threatens to derail the current PPP stint in power.
The feeling in some PPP circles is that if the NRO strikes at Zardari and his cronies, rural Sindh, where the PPP has grass root support for the Bhuttos, would not react as fiercely as many predict it would. This may be so because Zardari and his Sindhi friends, who were never part of the Benazir circle, have generated enough ill will and animosity in the last 18 months. Some have been forced to recall the funny story of the coffin thief of a village and his son. It is better not to repeat that story.
The prime minister appears to be in two minds and would publicly like to support the president but he had himself refused to take any benefit from the NRO and had his own cases judged by the regular Musharraf courts under old laws. That one correct political decision may help him immensely when the NRO may keep haunting others.
But he is also lobbying secretly for the principled political parties, both allies and opponents, to take a stand against the NRO so that the system could be cleansed and stabilised. How much support he can muster within the PPP is a moot question but if he takes a public position, many would come forward to support him. His government would in no case fall because the PML-N has offered to sustain it.
The intense discussions behind closed doors are focusing on finding some way out before the NRO explodes into the political scene and starts rocking the boat. Political wings of agencies are secretly lobbying members of parliament to vote out the law, which may force the president to think about giving up his powers or to resign.
Various compromise formulas are also doing the rounds, some code named minus-5 and others minus-12. The five and 12 are the personal friends and helpers of Zardari during his jail time, who have now been posted on sensitive state positions.
The stand taken by the Fata members is one such example of immense relevance. Although, they have taken up an anti-government position on a different issue, they want to sit in the opposition and would not like to side with the pro-NRO lobby. If that happens, it would be a major blow to the Zardari camp. The role of the secret agencies thus would come out in the open.
An overriding desire and effort in all the camps, including the non-political establishment, is not to rock the entire system. Everyone agrees in private that if President Zardari and his group of few unwanted aides were sidelined, the system will stabilise so that the focus can be shifted to the war against terrorists. But resilience and the fighting spirit of Zardari is being tested by the day.
According to one source located within the presidency, tension in the presidential camp is mounting and a battle headquarter is being set up to mobilise forces, appease allies, win over opponents and get the NRO passed by parliament, even bulldozed if necessary. But all the excitement suddenly dies down when the question of the Supreme Court striking down the NRO comes up. Everyone is suddenly dumbfounded.
The latest initiative by President Zardari to meet PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif to sort out their issues is viewed in the presidency as their last ditch political offensive to get Nawaz Sharif on his side. The argument that will be pitched to him will be that the military establishment is again out to derail the political process and in this fight the politicians should stay on the same side.
Although, Nawaz is strongly of the same views, it is highly unlikely that he will take sides with Zardari unless some huge, really huge, concessions are made and immediately, without waiting for any minute, hour or day.
Informed presidential sources say President Zardari is now ready to give up all his powers under the 17th Amendment, including the powers to appoint the Army chief but whether it is too late and too little for Nawaz to accept this bait is not yet clear. What is clear is that Nawaz has been bitten twice or thrice by the same snake hole and he may not like to poke his finger in that hole again.
Mystery of Kerry-Lugar conditions solved?
By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: Intense search has begun in political and media circles to find out who is the father of the Pakistan Army and ISI-specific conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which ultimately led to the assertive statement issued by the 122nd corps commanders’ meeting on Wednesday. But the search will not be too difficult.
All fingers point to the Pakistani lobbyists in Washington who were hired by the Pakistan Embassy after thePPP government came into power in 2008. These lobbyists, including Mark A Siegel and Cassidy and Associates, were supposed to work for Pakistan and were paid million of dollars, but they were actually lobbying against Pakistan and were trying to get anti-Pakistan conditions inserted in the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
Experts, who know Washington, say the lobbyists do only what their client tells them. In the case of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the client has been the Pakistan Embassy, so the buck will have to stop at the Pakistani mission in Washington DC.
But according to one expert, the details of all these Army-specific conditions were spelled out in a well-publicised book published by a Pakistani scholar-cum-journalist-cum-diplomat, way back in January 2006.
The language in which the scholar, Husain Haqqani, now Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington and the main proponent of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, had urged Washington to put these conditions on Pakistan would shock everyone, when read in today’s context.
For instance, the book ëPakistan between Mosque and Militaryí states categorically that “the United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies.” The book states: “Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government.”
At another place the book says: “Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase...”
On pages 327 to 329, Haqqani says: “Unlike governments in other Muslim countries like Egypt and Turkey, Pakistan’s government - particularly its military - has encouraged political and radical Islam, which otherwise has a relatively narrow base of support. Democratic consensus on limiting or reversing Islamisation would gradually roll back the Islamist influence in Pakistani public life. Islamists would maintain their role as a minority pressure group representing a particular point of view, but they would stop wielding their current disproportionate influence over the country’s overall direction.
“The United States can help contain the Islamists’ influence by demanding reform of those aspects of Pakistan’s governance that involve the military and security services. Until now, the United States has harshly berated corrupt or ineffective Pakistani politicians but has only mildly criticised the military’s meddling. Between 1988 and 1999, when civilians ostensibly governed Pakistan, US officials routinely criticised the civilians’ conduct but refrained from commenting on the negative role of the military and the intelligence services despite overwhelming evidence of that role. ISI manipulation of the 1988, 1990, and 1997 elections went unnoticed publicly by the United States while the Pakistan military’s recitation of politicians’ failings was generally accepted without acknowledging the impacts of limits set for the politicians by the military. The United States appears to accept the Pakistani military’s falsified narrative of Pakistan’s recent history, at least in public. It is often assumed that the military’s intervention in politics is motivated by its own concern over national security and the incompetence of politicians. That the military might be a contributor to political incompetence and its desire to control national security policies might be a function of its pursuit of domestic political power are hardly ever taken into account.
“Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government. As an aid donor, Washington has become one of Pakistan’s most important benefactors, but a large part of US economic assistance since September 11, 2001 has been used to pay down Pakistan’s foreign debt. Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase, and spending for social services is well below the level required to improve living conditions for ordinary Pakistanis. The United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies. Even though Musharraf’s selective cooperation in hunting down Al-Qaeda terrorists is a positive development, Washington must not ignore Pakistan’s state sponsorship of Islamist militants, its pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles at the expense of education and healthcare, and its refusal to democratise; each of these issues is directly linked to the future of Islamic radicalism.
“The United States clearly has a few good short-term policy options in relation to Pakistan. American policymakers should endeavour to recognise the failings of their past policies and avoid repeating their mistakes. The United State has sought short-term gains from its relationship with Pakistan, inadvertently accentuating that country’s problems in the process. Pakistan’s civil and military elite, on the other hand, must understand how their three-part paradigm for state and nation building has led Pakistan from one disaster to the next. Pakistan was created in a hurry and without giving detailed thought to various aspects of national and state building. Perhaps it is time to rectify that mistake by taking a long-term view. Both Pakistan’s elite and their US benefactors would have to participate in transforming Pakistan into a functional, rather than ideological, state.”
Once these considered suggestions and proposals made by the current Pakistan ambassador are analysed in today’s context, there will be few left who would continue to search for the source of the insulting conditions which the Kerry-Lugar Bill has imposed on Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: Intense search has begun in political and media circles to find out who is the father of the Pakistan Army and ISI-specific conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which ultimately led to the assertive statement issued by the 122nd corps commanders’ meeting on Wednesday. But the search will not be too difficult.
All fingers point to the Pakistani lobbyists in Washington who were hired by the Pakistan Embassy after thePPP government came into power in 2008. These lobbyists, including Mark A Siegel and Cassidy and Associates, were supposed to work for Pakistan and were paid million of dollars, but they were actually lobbying against Pakistan and were trying to get anti-Pakistan conditions inserted in the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
Experts, who know Washington, say the lobbyists do only what their client tells them. In the case of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the client has been the Pakistan Embassy, so the buck will have to stop at the Pakistani mission in Washington DC.
But according to one expert, the details of all these Army-specific conditions were spelled out in a well-publicised book published by a Pakistani scholar-cum-journalist-cum-diplomat, way back in January 2006.
The language in which the scholar, Husain Haqqani, now Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington and the main proponent of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, had urged Washington to put these conditions on Pakistan would shock everyone, when read in today’s context.
For instance, the book ëPakistan between Mosque and Militaryí states categorically that “the United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies.” The book states: “Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government.”
At another place the book says: “Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase...”
On pages 327 to 329, Haqqani says: “Unlike governments in other Muslim countries like Egypt and Turkey, Pakistan’s government - particularly its military - has encouraged political and radical Islam, which otherwise has a relatively narrow base of support. Democratic consensus on limiting or reversing Islamisation would gradually roll back the Islamist influence in Pakistani public life. Islamists would maintain their role as a minority pressure group representing a particular point of view, but they would stop wielding their current disproportionate influence over the country’s overall direction.
“The United States can help contain the Islamists’ influence by demanding reform of those aspects of Pakistan’s governance that involve the military and security services. Until now, the United States has harshly berated corrupt or ineffective Pakistani politicians but has only mildly criticised the military’s meddling. Between 1988 and 1999, when civilians ostensibly governed Pakistan, US officials routinely criticised the civilians’ conduct but refrained from commenting on the negative role of the military and the intelligence services despite overwhelming evidence of that role. ISI manipulation of the 1988, 1990, and 1997 elections went unnoticed publicly by the United States while the Pakistan military’s recitation of politicians’ failings was generally accepted without acknowledging the impacts of limits set for the politicians by the military. The United States appears to accept the Pakistani military’s falsified narrative of Pakistan’s recent history, at least in public. It is often assumed that the military’s intervention in politics is motivated by its own concern over national security and the incompetence of politicians. That the military might be a contributor to political incompetence and its desire to control national security policies might be a function of its pursuit of domestic political power are hardly ever taken into account.
“Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government. As an aid donor, Washington has become one of Pakistan’s most important benefactors, but a large part of US economic assistance since September 11, 2001 has been used to pay down Pakistan’s foreign debt. Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase, and spending for social services is well below the level required to improve living conditions for ordinary Pakistanis. The United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies. Even though Musharraf’s selective cooperation in hunting down Al-Qaeda terrorists is a positive development, Washington must not ignore Pakistan’s state sponsorship of Islamist militants, its pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles at the expense of education and healthcare, and its refusal to democratise; each of these issues is directly linked to the future of Islamic radicalism.
“The United States clearly has a few good short-term policy options in relation to Pakistan. American policymakers should endeavour to recognise the failings of their past policies and avoid repeating their mistakes. The United State has sought short-term gains from its relationship with Pakistan, inadvertently accentuating that country’s problems in the process. Pakistan’s civil and military elite, on the other hand, must understand how their three-part paradigm for state and nation building has led Pakistan from one disaster to the next. Pakistan was created in a hurry and without giving detailed thought to various aspects of national and state building. Perhaps it is time to rectify that mistake by taking a long-term view. Both Pakistan’s elite and their US benefactors would have to participate in transforming Pakistan into a functional, rather than ideological, state.”
Once these considered suggestions and proposals made by the current Pakistan ambassador are analysed in today’s context, there will be few left who would continue to search for the source of the insulting conditions which the Kerry-Lugar Bill has imposed on Pakistan.
FoDP dumps expected billions into WB basket
By Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON: The Friends of Democratic Pakistan, a forum which was created by President Asif Ali Zardari to raise billions of dollars for 'his' Pakistan, on Thursday quietly dumped the issue back into the lap of the World Bank, something which Mr Zardari had specifically warned against when he launched it a year ago.
And in another subtle move the FoDP turned itself into a political debating club for expressing support, minus of course the talk of the billions. Foreign Minister Qureshi had to explain to the media that the FoDP meeting was not about "pledges", although Mr Zardari had nothing else in mind except getting pledges of billions.
This subtle change of its purpose and definition contrastssharply with the original idea of President Zardari who launched it almost exactly one year ago at the same time and place, with the urgent appeal to collect $100 billion dollars as grants, from what he considered to be friends ready to trust him after the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto and his dramatic rise to power.
On Oct 4, 2008, shortly after the FoDP was launched with much fanfare, Mr Zardari had gone on record asking for the $100 billion dollars and warning against involving the World Bank. After interviewing him, the Wall Street Journal reported: "On Mr Zardari's request for $100 billion in grant he has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail...In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan's economy, Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid. Aid is proven through the researches of the World Bank . . . (to be) bad for a country. I'm looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me. It is not something I want to spend. But (it) will stop the (outflow) of my capital every time there is a bomb (blast). In this situation, how do I create capital confidence, how do I create businessmen's confidence?"
But when on Thursday in New York, the high profile summit of FODP ended with a political statement of good wishes and "we all love you" but go to the World Bank Trust for money, the only saving grace for the Pakistani managers of the FODP moot was the Senate passage of a modified version of the Kerry Lugar Bill. This was the best news President Obama could give to the FODP leaders although it has to pass through several stages before any dollars reach Pakistan.
Just one day before the FODP meeting Zardari had urged the US to reimburse $1.6 billion dollars and had called for an early realisation of about $6 billion pledged to Pakistan at a Tokyo donors conference early this year.
A top diplomatic source in New York said Pakistan had just received less than 15 per cent of this pledged amount so far and the creation of a Word Bank trust means the whole issue has been thrown into the mill of the financial institutions where Pakistan is already grappling with conditions and repayment schedules. What Mr Zardari wanted was aid or grants not loans. That has not yet come.
Even the prolific support of Richard Holbrooke for Mr Zardari was not enough to get more than statements stuffed with hot air. His own remarks after the FODP meeting reflected this helplessness or inaction. This is what he said: "... we wanted to show clearly that we were - that the United States and Pakistan's other friends are all working together for Pakistan. It's a long way from this meeting to realities on the ground, but this is the first summit meeting of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, and we're very proud that it was co-hosted by our President on American soil." In essense, a long way to go but we are proud to host it now.
The way the FODP initiative was mixed up and merged with the Kerry Lugar bill was a master stroke of the PPP strategists who wanted to cover up the lack of progress in New York with the work in progress on Capitol Hill.
The British envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Sir Cooper, called the adoption of the Kerry-Lugar bill the best "Eid gift" to the people of Pakistan. Where is that gift was left open for the people to look for but he reaffirmed British support for the country.
This support for the "people of Pakistan" was a repeated mantra because the US and other world leaders did not want to fall into the trap of equating the support for Pakistan to support for Mr Zardari. President Obama mentioned this in his opening remarks at the FODP by congratulating President Zardari but reaffirming deep commitment to the people.
Diplomatic insiders in New York say one of the reason behind President Zardari's "absence" from all the speeches of President Obama in New York, three at least, was this hesitation in US circles to express direct and unequivocal personal support for the Pakistani president. It was hilarious to note that Mr Zardari missed Obama's speech because he had to go for a medical check up but his personal physician, who is accompanying the president and should have been with him in the hospital, was left behind to hear Mr Obama's address, one diplomat revealed.
The hoopla about the passage of the Kerry Lugar bill may have partly made up for the lack of substance at the FODP meeting but a close reading of the Kerry Lugar text reveals that the conditions and clauses included have almost made the US the big brother with a big stick watching almost every economic, political, military and social activity in Pakistan. No wonder the US needs a lot of houses and residences in Islamabad.
The list of conditions and monitoring subjects (pl refer to the text of the bill) makes stunning reading but the key para which is likely to create a lot of trouble, although it is desperately needed in Pakistan's context, is about keeping the armed forces under control of the civilians.
This para is about US monitoring and every six months Secretary of State has to give the Congress "an assessment of the extent to which the Government of Pakistan exercises effective civilian control of the military, including a description of the extent to which civilian executive leaders and parliament exercise oversight and approval of military budgets, the chain of command, the process of promotion for senior military leaders, civilian involvement in strategic guidance and planning, and military involvement in civil administration."
The Indian factor has been added in these conditions under the following clause: "It is the sense of Congress that the achievement of United States national security goals to eliminate terrorist threats and close safe havens in Pakistan requires the development of a comprehensive plan that utilizes all elements of national power, including in coordination and cooperation with other concerned governments, and that it is critical to Pakistan's long-term prosperity and security to strengthen regional relationships among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan."
There are several roadblocks, checkpoints and mechanisms to monitor where the aid given to Pakistan will flow because of the widespread fears of corruption and pilferage of the aid dollars.
Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi addressed that question in a diplomatic way but Richard Holbrooke said it bluntly. In response to a question on possibilities of corruption, the foreign minister assured the journalists that a mechanism has been devised in consultation with the Friends of Pakistan to make the whole process transparent. He said that the donor countries were satisfied with this arrangement.
Answering the same question, Holbrooke said that the US government has assigned Ambassador Robin Raphel, who under the instructions of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will coordinate with the relevant government ministries as the aid process moves forward. What he meant was that she will be the "monitor in chief" to catch any thief, big or small.
Whether Kerry Lugar washes away the impact of the missing dollars at the FODP meeting, a senior ex-diplomat in New York put the whole circus into a comical perspective. He said: FODP or FODP was a stock character in English literature and especially comic drama, as well as satirical prints. He is a "man of fashion" who overdresses, aspires to wit, and generally puts on airs. FODP was widely used as a derogatory epithet for a broad range of people by the early years of the 18th century; many of these might not have been considered showy lightweights at the time, and it is possible that its meaning had been blunted by this time.
WASHINGTON: The Friends of Democratic Pakistan, a forum which was created by President Asif Ali Zardari to raise billions of dollars for 'his' Pakistan, on Thursday quietly dumped the issue back into the lap of the World Bank, something which Mr Zardari had specifically warned against when he launched it a year ago.
And in another subtle move the FoDP turned itself into a political debating club for expressing support, minus of course the talk of the billions. Foreign Minister Qureshi had to explain to the media that the FoDP meeting was not about "pledges", although Mr Zardari had nothing else in mind except getting pledges of billions.
This subtle change of its purpose and definition contrastssharply with the original idea of President Zardari who launched it almost exactly one year ago at the same time and place, with the urgent appeal to collect $100 billion dollars as grants, from what he considered to be friends ready to trust him after the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto and his dramatic rise to power.
On Oct 4, 2008, shortly after the FoDP was launched with much fanfare, Mr Zardari had gone on record asking for the $100 billion dollars and warning against involving the World Bank. After interviewing him, the Wall Street Journal reported: "On Mr Zardari's request for $100 billion in grant he has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail...In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan's economy, Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid. Aid is proven through the researches of the World Bank . . . (to be) bad for a country. I'm looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me. It is not something I want to spend. But (it) will stop the (outflow) of my capital every time there is a bomb (blast). In this situation, how do I create capital confidence, how do I create businessmen's confidence?"
But when on Thursday in New York, the high profile summit of FODP ended with a political statement of good wishes and "we all love you" but go to the World Bank Trust for money, the only saving grace for the Pakistani managers of the FODP moot was the Senate passage of a modified version of the Kerry Lugar Bill. This was the best news President Obama could give to the FODP leaders although it has to pass through several stages before any dollars reach Pakistan.
Just one day before the FODP meeting Zardari had urged the US to reimburse $1.6 billion dollars and had called for an early realisation of about $6 billion pledged to Pakistan at a Tokyo donors conference early this year.
A top diplomatic source in New York said Pakistan had just received less than 15 per cent of this pledged amount so far and the creation of a Word Bank trust means the whole issue has been thrown into the mill of the financial institutions where Pakistan is already grappling with conditions and repayment schedules. What Mr Zardari wanted was aid or grants not loans. That has not yet come.
Even the prolific support of Richard Holbrooke for Mr Zardari was not enough to get more than statements stuffed with hot air. His own remarks after the FODP meeting reflected this helplessness or inaction. This is what he said: "... we wanted to show clearly that we were - that the United States and Pakistan's other friends are all working together for Pakistan. It's a long way from this meeting to realities on the ground, but this is the first summit meeting of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, and we're very proud that it was co-hosted by our President on American soil." In essense, a long way to go but we are proud to host it now.
The way the FODP initiative was mixed up and merged with the Kerry Lugar bill was a master stroke of the PPP strategists who wanted to cover up the lack of progress in New York with the work in progress on Capitol Hill.
The British envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Sir Cooper, called the adoption of the Kerry-Lugar bill the best "Eid gift" to the people of Pakistan. Where is that gift was left open for the people to look for but he reaffirmed British support for the country.
This support for the "people of Pakistan" was a repeated mantra because the US and other world leaders did not want to fall into the trap of equating the support for Pakistan to support for Mr Zardari. President Obama mentioned this in his opening remarks at the FODP by congratulating President Zardari but reaffirming deep commitment to the people.
Diplomatic insiders in New York say one of the reason behind President Zardari's "absence" from all the speeches of President Obama in New York, three at least, was this hesitation in US circles to express direct and unequivocal personal support for the Pakistani president. It was hilarious to note that Mr Zardari missed Obama's speech because he had to go for a medical check up but his personal physician, who is accompanying the president and should have been with him in the hospital, was left behind to hear Mr Obama's address, one diplomat revealed.
The hoopla about the passage of the Kerry Lugar bill may have partly made up for the lack of substance at the FODP meeting but a close reading of the Kerry Lugar text reveals that the conditions and clauses included have almost made the US the big brother with a big stick watching almost every economic, political, military and social activity in Pakistan. No wonder the US needs a lot of houses and residences in Islamabad.
The list of conditions and monitoring subjects (pl refer to the text of the bill) makes stunning reading but the key para which is likely to create a lot of trouble, although it is desperately needed in Pakistan's context, is about keeping the armed forces under control of the civilians.
This para is about US monitoring and every six months Secretary of State has to give the Congress "an assessment of the extent to which the Government of Pakistan exercises effective civilian control of the military, including a description of the extent to which civilian executive leaders and parliament exercise oversight and approval of military budgets, the chain of command, the process of promotion for senior military leaders, civilian involvement in strategic guidance and planning, and military involvement in civil administration."
The Indian factor has been added in these conditions under the following clause: "It is the sense of Congress that the achievement of United States national security goals to eliminate terrorist threats and close safe havens in Pakistan requires the development of a comprehensive plan that utilizes all elements of national power, including in coordination and cooperation with other concerned governments, and that it is critical to Pakistan's long-term prosperity and security to strengthen regional relationships among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan."
There are several roadblocks, checkpoints and mechanisms to monitor where the aid given to Pakistan will flow because of the widespread fears of corruption and pilferage of the aid dollars.
Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi addressed that question in a diplomatic way but Richard Holbrooke said it bluntly. In response to a question on possibilities of corruption, the foreign minister assured the journalists that a mechanism has been devised in consultation with the Friends of Pakistan to make the whole process transparent. He said that the donor countries were satisfied with this arrangement.
Answering the same question, Holbrooke said that the US government has assigned Ambassador Robin Raphel, who under the instructions of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will coordinate with the relevant government ministries as the aid process moves forward. What he meant was that she will be the "monitor in chief" to catch any thief, big or small.
Whether Kerry Lugar washes away the impact of the missing dollars at the FODP meeting, a senior ex-diplomat in New York put the whole circus into a comical perspective. He said: FODP or FODP was a stock character in English literature and especially comic drama, as well as satirical prints. He is a "man of fashion" who overdresses, aspires to wit, and generally puts on airs. FODP was widely used as a derogatory epithet for a broad range of people by the early years of the 18th century; many of these might not have been considered showy lightweights at the time, and it is possible that its meaning had been blunted by this time.
Where did the minus-1 formula come from?
By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: The much abused and widely discussed minus-1 formula, which in other words means either safe or a violent exit of Asif Ali Zardari from the political scene, started taking shape in the power corridors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi when coupled with political failures, there was a torrent of reports of corruption, mainly by people associated and appointed by the presidency on key government and corporate positions, with a turnover of billions in shady deals.
What was going on in the presidency was unprecedented. Crooks and cronies of all hues were being offered lucrative positions in state-run corporations and money minting departments. There was no one on top of the hill to take note and the prime minister was too weak to raise any objection.
Important decision makers quietly admit that Yousuf Raza Gilani was repeatedly told to intervene but he was too meek and had been tasked to keep the politicians, coalition partners and the opposition, engaged and happy with his continued sweet talk, public appeasement and cash incentives for as long as he could. A fly on the wall said a Maulana would appear regularly in the PM House to take what he needed and this was no secret.
“The energisers and vitamin tablets Gilani was being given by many quarters, in hushed tones, were not working until by the end of last year and early 2009 the PM made some high profile moves to sack some bureaucrats, in close consultation with Zardari, to beef up his image. The PM slowly gained confidence. He surprised the president when he visited Karachi and secluded in the private quarters of the Sindh Governor’s House he finalised the list of his top bureaucratic reshuffle, away from the ears and eyes watching the PM House and his office all the time,” an associate revealed.
When Zardari protested, he was quietly told that if he had been informed in advance, the shuffle would not have been possible. A Presidency insider narrated the story of how the lifestyles of people around the president had transformed within weeks and months. “One close aide, working without any official position or a salary, had started wearing shoes costing over Rs300,000 a pair and this guy had no shame in showing off his shoes to anyone and everyone, even those who march in big boots.”
Such stories travelled far and wide and the consensus started developing that if the Presidency was to be used only for making deals by cronies, with the president either shut in his bunker or making trips round the world, this state of affairs could not be sustained. How and when to change it then became the key question.
When pressure started to become unbearable for the PM, he finally talked quietly to Zardari and told him about who, and where, people were getting so upset. This was taken as a direct interference and there was a lot of talk of teaching some people a lesson. A minus-1 option in Rawalpindi was discussed in private sittings. Secret meetings with uniformed star officers were held in the wee hours of cold nights. But as the presidency in Islamabad is the most watched and wired real estate in the country, this secret was soon out. Political amateurs, who had grabbed the high place coming from tiny bit jobs in hospitals, jails, and stud farms or from apartments in exile, could not keep the secret.
Then the presidential camp devised a scheme to turn around the Minus-1 formula. Publicly its existence was acknowledged, reactions were generated to create a mock political storm, and the idea was to use it against the original target. Before this could be done, decision makers at all stations started thinking about removing the president as it appeared to be the only viable option if the system had to be saved, cleansed and stabilised.
But still there was no operative mechanism. The president was bunkered in so physically he was safe but politically he was committing major blunders eating up his political capital, or whatever was left of it. By the middle of March, when the judges were restored, his political influence was almost finished yet his business dealings and property acquisition plans were on full steam. The latest report about the 300 acres of land in Islamabad proves he completed the deal in June 2009, oblivious of the disastrous image that he would get. Tragically, the deal also involved Bilawal, whose political career would now start as a partner in a shady deal with his father.
One recurring question that came up almost at every session I had with politicians, retired and working civil and military bureaucrats, journalists and businessmen was whether the democratic set-up and the political system was under any kind of threat if the ‘Minus-1’ formula, was implemented. And almost everywhere the consensus was a big ‘No’.
It was a ‘no, no’ because except democracy Pakistan has no other option, the military option being the most talked about alternative. Mian Nawaz Sharif is the strongest believer that the military may not intervene now, but 3-4 years down the line, he thinks it may come back once the threat of terrorism is under control and some stability is achieved. His fears are genuine but he also believes that politicians have to perform, earn respect and credibility, provide relief to the suppressed masses and continue the process. If they succeed, no one will try and no one will allow a military intervention.
The military establishment has tried hard under General Kayani and General Pasha to wash the black paint General Musharraf had splashed around the Army uniform. From a position where officers were told not to wear that uniform in public, the image has been restored to an extent that people praise their effort in Malakand and their sacrifices in the war on terror. Only a naive commander would want to fight a war with unconventional and murderous terrorists on the one hand and run the civilian affairs of a totally collapsing society on the other.
So the only option is continuation of the system and to let the process take its course. When I argued with many in the top houses where decisions are made, as to what was wrong with a change of face in a ministry, or the PM house or even the Presidency, as there was a mechanism to elect or appoint a replacement through the process, the presidential camp always saw it as a conspiracy against the person of Zardari. But others agree that to take the process further and to make the corrective mechanisms strong, political turbulence should not be taken as a threat to the entire system.
It is generally felt that Zardari has, through his inept handling of major issues and multiple setbacks, almost lost all his chances of stepping down from the Presidency and reach the PM House as leader of the house and PM. Initially, this was one of the acceptable options but now the script does not figure any role for him in the government and he would be left to manage the party, that is if he can do so.
This leaves the PM almost on his own and his major challenge would be to come out of the shadows of Zardari on the one hand and keep the loyalties of as many PPP MPs as possible so that his government’s majority in parliament is not threatened. The Opposition is helping him out, to a degree.
Everyone understands the dilemma facing Prime Minister Gilani as everything that he does which has a stamp of President Zardari’s personal approval is considered to be shady and stinks. So when the cabinet takes a sweeping decision to privatise all big corporations like the PIA, PSO and such other giants, immediately the red flags start going up. The fear is that all these assets will be sold to friends and business partners, even if the process is claimed to be transparent.
The PM should, therefore, stop all such deals and decisions until he becomes a PM in his own right and the decisions are seen as collective decisions to be implemented in a transparent manner and not dictated to suit the deep pockets of presidential friends who have already made billions.
The PM, when he gets out of the shadows of the Presidency, will have to catch these big fish to establish his credibility. Nothing short of a massive hunt for such wheeler dealers with a criminal mind will bring Gilani some credit. He has lived too long as a sheepish lame duck.
PS: A fly on the presidential wall told me the first part of this series was faxed by Altaf Hussain from London to President Asif Zardari on Wednesday with the note that you should read it personally as it had come from a journalist who used to meet you in jail. Hussain also ensured that the fax was seen by the president.
Next: Has a countdown begun in Islamabad?
ISLAMABAD: The much abused and widely discussed minus-1 formula, which in other words means either safe or a violent exit of Asif Ali Zardari from the political scene, started taking shape in the power corridors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi when coupled with political failures, there was a torrent of reports of corruption, mainly by people associated and appointed by the presidency on key government and corporate positions, with a turnover of billions in shady deals.
What was going on in the presidency was unprecedented. Crooks and cronies of all hues were being offered lucrative positions in state-run corporations and money minting departments. There was no one on top of the hill to take note and the prime minister was too weak to raise any objection.
Important decision makers quietly admit that Yousuf Raza Gilani was repeatedly told to intervene but he was too meek and had been tasked to keep the politicians, coalition partners and the opposition, engaged and happy with his continued sweet talk, public appeasement and cash incentives for as long as he could. A fly on the wall said a Maulana would appear regularly in the PM House to take what he needed and this was no secret.
“The energisers and vitamin tablets Gilani was being given by many quarters, in hushed tones, were not working until by the end of last year and early 2009 the PM made some high profile moves to sack some bureaucrats, in close consultation with Zardari, to beef up his image. The PM slowly gained confidence. He surprised the president when he visited Karachi and secluded in the private quarters of the Sindh Governor’s House he finalised the list of his top bureaucratic reshuffle, away from the ears and eyes watching the PM House and his office all the time,” an associate revealed.
When Zardari protested, he was quietly told that if he had been informed in advance, the shuffle would not have been possible. A Presidency insider narrated the story of how the lifestyles of people around the president had transformed within weeks and months. “One close aide, working without any official position or a salary, had started wearing shoes costing over Rs300,000 a pair and this guy had no shame in showing off his shoes to anyone and everyone, even those who march in big boots.”
Such stories travelled far and wide and the consensus started developing that if the Presidency was to be used only for making deals by cronies, with the president either shut in his bunker or making trips round the world, this state of affairs could not be sustained. How and when to change it then became the key question.
When pressure started to become unbearable for the PM, he finally talked quietly to Zardari and told him about who, and where, people were getting so upset. This was taken as a direct interference and there was a lot of talk of teaching some people a lesson. A minus-1 option in Rawalpindi was discussed in private sittings. Secret meetings with uniformed star officers were held in the wee hours of cold nights. But as the presidency in Islamabad is the most watched and wired real estate in the country, this secret was soon out. Political amateurs, who had grabbed the high place coming from tiny bit jobs in hospitals, jails, and stud farms or from apartments in exile, could not keep the secret.
Then the presidential camp devised a scheme to turn around the Minus-1 formula. Publicly its existence was acknowledged, reactions were generated to create a mock political storm, and the idea was to use it against the original target. Before this could be done, decision makers at all stations started thinking about removing the president as it appeared to be the only viable option if the system had to be saved, cleansed and stabilised.
But still there was no operative mechanism. The president was bunkered in so physically he was safe but politically he was committing major blunders eating up his political capital, or whatever was left of it. By the middle of March, when the judges were restored, his political influence was almost finished yet his business dealings and property acquisition plans were on full steam. The latest report about the 300 acres of land in Islamabad proves he completed the deal in June 2009, oblivious of the disastrous image that he would get. Tragically, the deal also involved Bilawal, whose political career would now start as a partner in a shady deal with his father.
One recurring question that came up almost at every session I had with politicians, retired and working civil and military bureaucrats, journalists and businessmen was whether the democratic set-up and the political system was under any kind of threat if the ‘Minus-1’ formula, was implemented. And almost everywhere the consensus was a big ‘No’.
It was a ‘no, no’ because except democracy Pakistan has no other option, the military option being the most talked about alternative. Mian Nawaz Sharif is the strongest believer that the military may not intervene now, but 3-4 years down the line, he thinks it may come back once the threat of terrorism is under control and some stability is achieved. His fears are genuine but he also believes that politicians have to perform, earn respect and credibility, provide relief to the suppressed masses and continue the process. If they succeed, no one will try and no one will allow a military intervention.
The military establishment has tried hard under General Kayani and General Pasha to wash the black paint General Musharraf had splashed around the Army uniform. From a position where officers were told not to wear that uniform in public, the image has been restored to an extent that people praise their effort in Malakand and their sacrifices in the war on terror. Only a naive commander would want to fight a war with unconventional and murderous terrorists on the one hand and run the civilian affairs of a totally collapsing society on the other.
So the only option is continuation of the system and to let the process take its course. When I argued with many in the top houses where decisions are made, as to what was wrong with a change of face in a ministry, or the PM house or even the Presidency, as there was a mechanism to elect or appoint a replacement through the process, the presidential camp always saw it as a conspiracy against the person of Zardari. But others agree that to take the process further and to make the corrective mechanisms strong, political turbulence should not be taken as a threat to the entire system.
It is generally felt that Zardari has, through his inept handling of major issues and multiple setbacks, almost lost all his chances of stepping down from the Presidency and reach the PM House as leader of the house and PM. Initially, this was one of the acceptable options but now the script does not figure any role for him in the government and he would be left to manage the party, that is if he can do so.
This leaves the PM almost on his own and his major challenge would be to come out of the shadows of Zardari on the one hand and keep the loyalties of as many PPP MPs as possible so that his government’s majority in parliament is not threatened. The Opposition is helping him out, to a degree.
Everyone understands the dilemma facing Prime Minister Gilani as everything that he does which has a stamp of President Zardari’s personal approval is considered to be shady and stinks. So when the cabinet takes a sweeping decision to privatise all big corporations like the PIA, PSO and such other giants, immediately the red flags start going up. The fear is that all these assets will be sold to friends and business partners, even if the process is claimed to be transparent.
The PM should, therefore, stop all such deals and decisions until he becomes a PM in his own right and the decisions are seen as collective decisions to be implemented in a transparent manner and not dictated to suit the deep pockets of presidential friends who have already made billions.
The PM, when he gets out of the shadows of the Presidency, will have to catch these big fish to establish his credibility. Nothing short of a massive hunt for such wheeler dealers with a criminal mind will bring Gilani some credit. He has lived too long as a sheepish lame duck.
PS: A fly on the presidential wall told me the first part of this series was faxed by Altaf Hussain from London to President Asif Zardari on Wednesday with the note that you should read it personally as it had come from a journalist who used to meet you in jail. Hussain also ensured that the fax was seen by the president.
Next: Has a countdown begun in Islamabad?
The contours of a changed, unwritten script Situationer
By Shaheen Sehbai
source: thenews
ISLAMABAD: In a week of intense behind the scenes political and diplomatic activity in the federal capital, key new lines have been added to the so called ‘script’, the unofficial, unwritten roadmap drawn up and preserved in the minds of the concerned people, to get rid of the despicable grip on the country of a few powerful highly placed individuals and their friends.
After my meetings with most of the main stakeholders in the present system during the last few days, including top people sitting in the Presidency, the PM House, Senate, National Assembly, Raiwind, the highly charged drawing rooms of Islamabad and the excited corridors ruled by career bureaucrats, the broad contours of the script have become identifiable. This assessment will purely be an analysis and conclusions drawn up by a journalist, but it will have many elements which have either come directly from the people I have met or from circles associated intimately with the real wielders of powers, political and non-political. Even before I started writing these lines, some elements of the new script had started becoming visible publicly.
The key indicators now out in the open include the shocking debacle for PPP on the NRO; the somersault of the MQM to oppose the NRO; a direct demand by Mr Altaf Hussain asking President Zardari to resign; the extra confidence in Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to practically take over matters in his own hands; the emergence of Nawaz Sharif from his friendly opposition bunker; the significant stand taken by Fata MPs; the calm and cool but ever persuasive demeanour of the army chief to discuss “matters of national security” with the prime minister (not the president); the nervousness in some camps over the “messages and ideas” Lady Hillary Clinton has taken back to Washington; and the unusual multi-country tour of our ISI chief, starting with Saudi Arabia, which some government spokespersons hilariously described as a visit in which he had taken a message to the Saudi King from President Zardari.
In the previous script the role of the judiciary and the superior courts was well defined but before that stage could arrive the presidential edifice crumbled under the weight of just a couple of smart political moves by pro-establishment forces. So a calculated fine-tuning had to be done.
What has already happened is known but what is likely to come is more important. All stakeholders agree, and this I can claim after meeting almost all of them in the last few days in Islamabad and Lahore, that President Asif Ali Zardari will have to either step down with dignity, hand over his presidential powers to the PM through a fast-track constitutional amendments process, or become a figure head and stay within his bunker for as long as he does not create any nuisance.
Some apologists for the presidency have already publicly indicated that Mr Zardari is seriously thinking about this course because that would keep him in the top most position, immune to the unpleasant hardships of defending himself in civil courts, a process he has endured for years, and wait for his time to strike back as a relevant PPP leader, with the active aid and presence of son Bilawal and daughters Bakhtawar and Assefa.
This could be the easier way out for him but it involves humiliation and embarrassment on a daily basis as his cronies and confidants, those who do not get away from the country in time, will be dragged in cases and in the media, presenting before the entertained nation a spectacle which Mr Zardari would not like. They will be paying for their sins, of course.
So my analysis is that he will fight back. Some who still have access to him claim that he has expressed these defiant views many a time saying he would never resign and if someone wanted to remove him, he should send an ambulance because he would not walk out on his own two feet.
But this fighting spirit and belligerent posture, although part of his psyche and state of mind, will not be beneficial politically. It is almost certain, and a senior Sindhi politician who knows the PPP and Sindh like the back of his own right hand, openly admits, that for Zardari there would be no “Sindh Card”, as it was available to Benazir Bhutto.
In fact when I asked the Sindhi politician what may happen in Sindh, and the heart of PPP country, if Zardari and his 12 friends were removed from their offices, the answer was: “Only these 13 people will protest, no one else will.” He explained that there are no PPP cadres with fires in their belly left in the interior of Sindh who would rise for Zardari. There is a growing sense of hatred because the Zardari clan has taken over all what was loved by the Bhutto jiyalas. “If today Nawaz Sharif stages a public meeting in Larkana, the country will be surprised at the turnout,” the mainstream Sindhi politician belonging to the PPP told me.
So chances for Mr Zardari to rekindle his political fortunes, once he gives up his powers or if he resigns, are genuinely limited. The PPP would split into factions with the bulk going to a collective committee of PPP stalwarts, seniors and juniors who have remained, or have been kept, on the sidelines by the Zardari coterie. This will also bring the much-needed democracy and openness in the party, breaking the shackles of feudal hold.
This PPP committee, contours of which are already shaping up, have strong arguments to describe the Zardari-led PPP era, which started with the 2008 elections. These arguments start with the failures of Mr Zardari ever since he presented the will of Benazir Bhutto to the PPP CEC. All that the CEC members have done ever since is to take his decisions and policies with a pinch of bitter salt but have gone along because the party had won seats in the name of Benazir Bhutto and they had got a chance to rule after years of wilderness. The corrupt among the party made a mad rush to make money because they realized that this set up will not last long, hence the stigma of corruption not only stuck but intensified.
The Zardari era, the argument goes, consists of broken promises, colossal mistakes in assessing the mood of the people, taking decisions with arrogance, taking on the establishment and institutions which were needed to survive, taking gigantic U-turns when under pressure and smiling about them, claiming unabashedly as if it was a considered policy (like the restoration of judges, sacking and restoration of the Punjab government of PML-N, surrender on the Kerry Lugar Bill and eventually running away from the NRO).
Conversely, if it has been any sign for anyone to read, the PM has always been making politically correct statements, never making a commitment which he knew he would not be able to deliver and most importantly, he has received the “asheerbaad” (blessings) of those who matter on all critical junctures. This is no longer true for Mr Zardari.
So when the judges were to be restored, the Army Chief called on the PM to deliver the quiet message. When the March 15 decision was taken General Kayani called Aitzaz Ahsan to inform Nawaz Sharif. When the Supreme Court was about to give the initial short order on the PCO judges case, the meeting between General Kayani and Aitzaz Ahsan was considered necessary. When things were getting out of hand on the Kerry Lugar Bill, a similar meeting between Shahbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar was held. The army chief also met the chief ministers of NWFP and Balochistan. When NRO erupted on the face of Mr Zardari, another meeting between the Army Chief and the PM was essential on Monday night so that the right message was conveyed. And it was. Then we saw the surrender.
These were domestic developments but the most important external factor which has now been added to the miseries of the presidency is the conclusion Hillary Clinton is believed to have drawn after her eye-opening three-day visit to Pakistan. She was actually on a fact-finding mission as the diplomatic channels in Pakistan and Washington had never informed her about the real situation. When the KLB exploded, State Department was taken aback and when Hillary saw with her own eyes and heard the people, her entire perceptions changed. Her almost three-hour meeting with General Kayani may have sealed many fates.
A shift in Washington’s policy, statements and emphasis would now be expected. She already took pains to ensure that none of her public and private utterances gave the impression that she was supporting any particular individual or any particular coalition government. She talked about the process of democracy and the people of Pakistan and that means faces can change but the Pak-US ties will stay.
The scriptwriters interpret this as a signal that Washington is no longer interested in protecting or prolonging Mr Zardari’s rule, if the people of Pakistan do not so wish. An official in the presidency quietly whispered in my ear that Mr Zardari has reached the point in just one year which General Musharraf took eight years to reach, vis-‡-vis the American support. “It is now for him to survive, the Americans have pulled the rug.”
On the domestic front again, the focus and all eyes would soon shift to the PM House where an hitherto out-shadowed PM was trying to cope and survive. Now the responsibility of making and owning all decisions would be his. Delivering results people expect from a sovereign parliament and a powerful PM under the amended constitution will be an onerous burden on Mr Yusuf Raza Gilani.
My interactions with a broad spectrum of important people reveal that Mr Gilani has not yet prepared himself to shoulder this responsibility. His administrative team is pretty weak and there is a growing sense of disconnect between the people around Mr Gilani and the rest of the top echelons of bureaucracy.
A senior bureaucrat told me the recent mass scale reshuffle in the officialdom by PM Gilani has made many officials nervous. They do not have direct and free access to the PM and a coterie of sorts is also beginning to surround the PM, like the one around the president. But this group is of professionals and civil servants who want to keep the PM under their thumb. It would be a big challenge for Mr Gilani to get a competent and effective team if he were to take charge and show the difference to the nation between a powerful PM and a one-man show which went wrong. He would have to sack high profile ministers, change cronies controlling the state organizations like the Pakistan Steel Mills, PSO, PIA, KESC and many others tainted with corruption.
source: thenews
ISLAMABAD: In a week of intense behind the scenes political and diplomatic activity in the federal capital, key new lines have been added to the so called ‘script’, the unofficial, unwritten roadmap drawn up and preserved in the minds of the concerned people, to get rid of the despicable grip on the country of a few powerful highly placed individuals and their friends.
After my meetings with most of the main stakeholders in the present system during the last few days, including top people sitting in the Presidency, the PM House, Senate, National Assembly, Raiwind, the highly charged drawing rooms of Islamabad and the excited corridors ruled by career bureaucrats, the broad contours of the script have become identifiable. This assessment will purely be an analysis and conclusions drawn up by a journalist, but it will have many elements which have either come directly from the people I have met or from circles associated intimately with the real wielders of powers, political and non-political. Even before I started writing these lines, some elements of the new script had started becoming visible publicly.
The key indicators now out in the open include the shocking debacle for PPP on the NRO; the somersault of the MQM to oppose the NRO; a direct demand by Mr Altaf Hussain asking President Zardari to resign; the extra confidence in Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to practically take over matters in his own hands; the emergence of Nawaz Sharif from his friendly opposition bunker; the significant stand taken by Fata MPs; the calm and cool but ever persuasive demeanour of the army chief to discuss “matters of national security” with the prime minister (not the president); the nervousness in some camps over the “messages and ideas” Lady Hillary Clinton has taken back to Washington; and the unusual multi-country tour of our ISI chief, starting with Saudi Arabia, which some government spokespersons hilariously described as a visit in which he had taken a message to the Saudi King from President Zardari.
In the previous script the role of the judiciary and the superior courts was well defined but before that stage could arrive the presidential edifice crumbled under the weight of just a couple of smart political moves by pro-establishment forces. So a calculated fine-tuning had to be done.
What has already happened is known but what is likely to come is more important. All stakeholders agree, and this I can claim after meeting almost all of them in the last few days in Islamabad and Lahore, that President Asif Ali Zardari will have to either step down with dignity, hand over his presidential powers to the PM through a fast-track constitutional amendments process, or become a figure head and stay within his bunker for as long as he does not create any nuisance.
Some apologists for the presidency have already publicly indicated that Mr Zardari is seriously thinking about this course because that would keep him in the top most position, immune to the unpleasant hardships of defending himself in civil courts, a process he has endured for years, and wait for his time to strike back as a relevant PPP leader, with the active aid and presence of son Bilawal and daughters Bakhtawar and Assefa.
This could be the easier way out for him but it involves humiliation and embarrassment on a daily basis as his cronies and confidants, those who do not get away from the country in time, will be dragged in cases and in the media, presenting before the entertained nation a spectacle which Mr Zardari would not like. They will be paying for their sins, of course.
So my analysis is that he will fight back. Some who still have access to him claim that he has expressed these defiant views many a time saying he would never resign and if someone wanted to remove him, he should send an ambulance because he would not walk out on his own two feet.
But this fighting spirit and belligerent posture, although part of his psyche and state of mind, will not be beneficial politically. It is almost certain, and a senior Sindhi politician who knows the PPP and Sindh like the back of his own right hand, openly admits, that for Zardari there would be no “Sindh Card”, as it was available to Benazir Bhutto.
In fact when I asked the Sindhi politician what may happen in Sindh, and the heart of PPP country, if Zardari and his 12 friends were removed from their offices, the answer was: “Only these 13 people will protest, no one else will.” He explained that there are no PPP cadres with fires in their belly left in the interior of Sindh who would rise for Zardari. There is a growing sense of hatred because the Zardari clan has taken over all what was loved by the Bhutto jiyalas. “If today Nawaz Sharif stages a public meeting in Larkana, the country will be surprised at the turnout,” the mainstream Sindhi politician belonging to the PPP told me.
So chances for Mr Zardari to rekindle his political fortunes, once he gives up his powers or if he resigns, are genuinely limited. The PPP would split into factions with the bulk going to a collective committee of PPP stalwarts, seniors and juniors who have remained, or have been kept, on the sidelines by the Zardari coterie. This will also bring the much-needed democracy and openness in the party, breaking the shackles of feudal hold.
This PPP committee, contours of which are already shaping up, have strong arguments to describe the Zardari-led PPP era, which started with the 2008 elections. These arguments start with the failures of Mr Zardari ever since he presented the will of Benazir Bhutto to the PPP CEC. All that the CEC members have done ever since is to take his decisions and policies with a pinch of bitter salt but have gone along because the party had won seats in the name of Benazir Bhutto and they had got a chance to rule after years of wilderness. The corrupt among the party made a mad rush to make money because they realized that this set up will not last long, hence the stigma of corruption not only stuck but intensified.
The Zardari era, the argument goes, consists of broken promises, colossal mistakes in assessing the mood of the people, taking decisions with arrogance, taking on the establishment and institutions which were needed to survive, taking gigantic U-turns when under pressure and smiling about them, claiming unabashedly as if it was a considered policy (like the restoration of judges, sacking and restoration of the Punjab government of PML-N, surrender on the Kerry Lugar Bill and eventually running away from the NRO).
Conversely, if it has been any sign for anyone to read, the PM has always been making politically correct statements, never making a commitment which he knew he would not be able to deliver and most importantly, he has received the “asheerbaad” (blessings) of those who matter on all critical junctures. This is no longer true for Mr Zardari.
So when the judges were to be restored, the Army Chief called on the PM to deliver the quiet message. When the March 15 decision was taken General Kayani called Aitzaz Ahsan to inform Nawaz Sharif. When the Supreme Court was about to give the initial short order on the PCO judges case, the meeting between General Kayani and Aitzaz Ahsan was considered necessary. When things were getting out of hand on the Kerry Lugar Bill, a similar meeting between Shahbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar was held. The army chief also met the chief ministers of NWFP and Balochistan. When NRO erupted on the face of Mr Zardari, another meeting between the Army Chief and the PM was essential on Monday night so that the right message was conveyed. And it was. Then we saw the surrender.
These were domestic developments but the most important external factor which has now been added to the miseries of the presidency is the conclusion Hillary Clinton is believed to have drawn after her eye-opening three-day visit to Pakistan. She was actually on a fact-finding mission as the diplomatic channels in Pakistan and Washington had never informed her about the real situation. When the KLB exploded, State Department was taken aback and when Hillary saw with her own eyes and heard the people, her entire perceptions changed. Her almost three-hour meeting with General Kayani may have sealed many fates.
A shift in Washington’s policy, statements and emphasis would now be expected. She already took pains to ensure that none of her public and private utterances gave the impression that she was supporting any particular individual or any particular coalition government. She talked about the process of democracy and the people of Pakistan and that means faces can change but the Pak-US ties will stay.
The scriptwriters interpret this as a signal that Washington is no longer interested in protecting or prolonging Mr Zardari’s rule, if the people of Pakistan do not so wish. An official in the presidency quietly whispered in my ear that Mr Zardari has reached the point in just one year which General Musharraf took eight years to reach, vis-‡-vis the American support. “It is now for him to survive, the Americans have pulled the rug.”
On the domestic front again, the focus and all eyes would soon shift to the PM House where an hitherto out-shadowed PM was trying to cope and survive. Now the responsibility of making and owning all decisions would be his. Delivering results people expect from a sovereign parliament and a powerful PM under the amended constitution will be an onerous burden on Mr Yusuf Raza Gilani.
My interactions with a broad spectrum of important people reveal that Mr Gilani has not yet prepared himself to shoulder this responsibility. His administrative team is pretty weak and there is a growing sense of disconnect between the people around Mr Gilani and the rest of the top echelons of bureaucracy.
A senior bureaucrat told me the recent mass scale reshuffle in the officialdom by PM Gilani has made many officials nervous. They do not have direct and free access to the PM and a coterie of sorts is also beginning to surround the PM, like the one around the president. But this group is of professionals and civil servants who want to keep the PM under their thumb. It would be a big challenge for Mr Gilani to get a competent and effective team if he were to take charge and show the difference to the nation between a powerful PM and a one-man show which went wrong. He would have to sack high profile ministers, change cronies controlling the state organizations like the Pakistan Steel Mills, PSO, PIA, KESC and many others tainted with corruption.
MQM distances itself, ANP in two minds
By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani political equation suddenly took a disturbing turn on Wednesday when differences between the civilian government and the Army high command surfaced over the Kerry-Lugar Bill and shook the national scene.
Amid fast-paced developments, which shocked the country, confusion in the government and coalition ranks was evident when Prime Minister Gilani, in a brief address to the National Assembly, offered to build a consensus between the president and the Army, implicitly admitting that things had suddenly changed.
A panic-stricken presidency went into urgent deliberations late on Wednesday night with PM Gilani, the interior and defence ministers and other main players and cronies. On the other side, parliament debated the Kerry-Lugar Bill in the backdrop of serious concerns expressed by the corps commanders at their 122nd conference in Rawalpindi earlier in the day.
Earlier, the presidency had described the criticism on the bill as an attempt to hit President Zardari. A detailed statement was issued by presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar, reflecting this view.
The commanders, in an unusual ISPR release, took an apparently public position by officially stating their opposition to a policy issue but the sponsors and promoters of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, especially those in Washington, apparently had left no space for the GHQ as it was not taken on board and it was a matter of just hours or days when President Obama would have signed the bill into US law.
Shocked by the reaction in Pakistan, the US president also stopped short of putting his signature to the bill and waited for the outcome of the intense controversy, which has gripped Pakistan, especially on the conditions for aid on the security side.
The News had pointed out on Sept 27 that all the stakeholders were not on board regarding the important bill, which had unacceptable conditions for Pakistan and some of our negotiators had kept these conditions hidden from their own side so that the US bill might get through without any hitch. But that did not happen.
On Wednesday, the Pakistan Army took a strong and clear position against the bill, parliament started a discussion but abruptly ended it with a quorum call and the presidency went into panic sessions to chalk out a strategy as the entire scheme of the bill sponsors had turned topsy-turvy, threatening the political edifice.
Just hours before the Pakistan Army stated its position, both President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani had strongly supported the US aid bill, asking members of parliament to back it.
The first strike against this government position was made by MQM chief Altaf Hussain who stopped short of expressing support and said he had reservations over the bill. Then came the massive blow from the Army chief who told the visiting US military commanders on Tuesday that conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill were not acceptable, as reported in The News.
The corps commanders’ conference officially put the stamp of rejection when the ISPR said this about the bill: “The Kerry-Lugar Bill also came under discussion during the conference. The forum expressed serious concern regarding clauses impacting on the national security. A formal input is being provided to the government.”
The Army tried to put a comforting glaze on its position when the announcement said: “However, in the considered view of the forum, it is parliament, that represents the will of the people of Pakistan, which would deliberate on the issue, enabling the government to develop a national response.”
But coming after the categorical positions taken both by the president and the PM to support the bill, asking the government to develop a “national response” meant that the Army was asking for a major review in line with the wishes of the commanders and the people of Pakistan.
The ISPR press release, quoting the COAS, also made a profound statement: “Pakistan is a sovereign state and has all the rights to analyse and respond to the threat in accordance with her own national interests.” Analysts took this as a rebuff to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, and its sponsors, who had been persistently trying to convince everyone that this bill was in the national interest and should be accepted as such.
The opposition leader in the National Assembly attacked the bill in gusto as he and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had recently met the Army chief quietly and were reportedly conveyed the message that the PML-N was not coming out as it should against the Zardari-led administration because serious national damage was being done.
The secret meeting of these PML-N leaders has now been almost confessed but it has also led to serious apprehensions in the PPP camp about the intentions of the Pakistan Army against the government.
Coalition partner MQM has already distanced itself from the bill while the ANP was in two minds and Afrasiab Khattak said a three-member committee had been set up by President Zardari and the ANP would announce its position within 48 hours. But sources said the position would not be what the adamant PPP co-chairman is asking for.
Whatever the outcome of the storm created by the Kerry-Lugar Bill and the divisions within the political and military establishment would be, sources said that a major shake up in the Foreign Ministry and its foreign set-ups was inevitable because of the failure in protecting national interests.
“When the Army high command, the entire opposition, the media and the people say that our interests have not been safeguarded, some heads have to roll,” a Foreign Ministry official said.
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani political equation suddenly took a disturbing turn on Wednesday when differences between the civilian government and the Army high command surfaced over the Kerry-Lugar Bill and shook the national scene.
Amid fast-paced developments, which shocked the country, confusion in the government and coalition ranks was evident when Prime Minister Gilani, in a brief address to the National Assembly, offered to build a consensus between the president and the Army, implicitly admitting that things had suddenly changed.
A panic-stricken presidency went into urgent deliberations late on Wednesday night with PM Gilani, the interior and defence ministers and other main players and cronies. On the other side, parliament debated the Kerry-Lugar Bill in the backdrop of serious concerns expressed by the corps commanders at their 122nd conference in Rawalpindi earlier in the day.
Earlier, the presidency had described the criticism on the bill as an attempt to hit President Zardari. A detailed statement was issued by presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar, reflecting this view.
The commanders, in an unusual ISPR release, took an apparently public position by officially stating their opposition to a policy issue but the sponsors and promoters of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, especially those in Washington, apparently had left no space for the GHQ as it was not taken on board and it was a matter of just hours or days when President Obama would have signed the bill into US law.
Shocked by the reaction in Pakistan, the US president also stopped short of putting his signature to the bill and waited for the outcome of the intense controversy, which has gripped Pakistan, especially on the conditions for aid on the security side.
The News had pointed out on Sept 27 that all the stakeholders were not on board regarding the important bill, which had unacceptable conditions for Pakistan and some of our negotiators had kept these conditions hidden from their own side so that the US bill might get through without any hitch. But that did not happen.
On Wednesday, the Pakistan Army took a strong and clear position against the bill, parliament started a discussion but abruptly ended it with a quorum call and the presidency went into panic sessions to chalk out a strategy as the entire scheme of the bill sponsors had turned topsy-turvy, threatening the political edifice.
Just hours before the Pakistan Army stated its position, both President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani had strongly supported the US aid bill, asking members of parliament to back it.
The first strike against this government position was made by MQM chief Altaf Hussain who stopped short of expressing support and said he had reservations over the bill. Then came the massive blow from the Army chief who told the visiting US military commanders on Tuesday that conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill were not acceptable, as reported in The News.
The corps commanders’ conference officially put the stamp of rejection when the ISPR said this about the bill: “The Kerry-Lugar Bill also came under discussion during the conference. The forum expressed serious concern regarding clauses impacting on the national security. A formal input is being provided to the government.”
The Army tried to put a comforting glaze on its position when the announcement said: “However, in the considered view of the forum, it is parliament, that represents the will of the people of Pakistan, which would deliberate on the issue, enabling the government to develop a national response.”
But coming after the categorical positions taken both by the president and the PM to support the bill, asking the government to develop a “national response” meant that the Army was asking for a major review in line with the wishes of the commanders and the people of Pakistan.
The ISPR press release, quoting the COAS, also made a profound statement: “Pakistan is a sovereign state and has all the rights to analyse and respond to the threat in accordance with her own national interests.” Analysts took this as a rebuff to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, and its sponsors, who had been persistently trying to convince everyone that this bill was in the national interest and should be accepted as such.
The opposition leader in the National Assembly attacked the bill in gusto as he and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had recently met the Army chief quietly and were reportedly conveyed the message that the PML-N was not coming out as it should against the Zardari-led administration because serious national damage was being done.
The secret meeting of these PML-N leaders has now been almost confessed but it has also led to serious apprehensions in the PPP camp about the intentions of the Pakistan Army against the government.
Coalition partner MQM has already distanced itself from the bill while the ANP was in two minds and Afrasiab Khattak said a three-member committee had been set up by President Zardari and the ANP would announce its position within 48 hours. But sources said the position would not be what the adamant PPP co-chairman is asking for.
Whatever the outcome of the storm created by the Kerry-Lugar Bill and the divisions within the political and military establishment would be, sources said that a major shake up in the Foreign Ministry and its foreign set-ups was inevitable because of the failure in protecting national interests.
“When the Army high command, the entire opposition, the media and the people say that our interests have not been safeguarded, some heads have to roll,” a Foreign Ministry official said.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)